Saturday 18th May
By SP2A Analysis
We have a couple at Wexford, which we'll pair together, a couple at Navan (split Divisions of the same race) which are a nice pair too, so we'll start with Thirsk and Uttoxeter in the Mainland.
THIRSK 5.30 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile - 16 run - Good to Firm (dry)
It's not going to be very firm summer ground but it will definitely be a race to suit top of the ground horses who don't like too much if any cut in the ground and that has been a significant factor in my deliberations. It's good to get away from York where the ground was quite tacky and patchy.
I was left with a short list of 4 in this 16 runner race but let's touch on a few others initially. The elephant in the room here is the 5 year old Rayat trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, it's only had 3 career runs, 2 of them on the AW so it's very hard to know what to expect. I always think the way to treat these types is to almost take them out of the equation and bet without them, if you want a win saver, have one; but the type who is either going to win pulling handstands or vanish out the back.
If we consider the handicap based on the 15 others then I'd see Dutch Kingdom, Red Hot Eagle and Covert legend as big dangers on AW form but far harder to assess their turf form and it's not as simple any more as saying a good AW horse can handle Good to Firm turf as some AW tracks (especially Newcastle) can ride quite deep. B Associates has probably the most dangerous turf form to my final picks to fear but so far it is mainly at 7 furlongs. I will add DUMFRIES to my tRACKER as it had some promising runs for Marcus Tregonning and I don't think it'll take too long for Ruth Carr to fathom out an inexplicably pooe yard debut last time.
My top 2 ratings are stacked with form at the trip, over course and distance and are race fit and frankly have no excuses. I narrowly prefer STAR SHIELD to FINBARS LAD both also seem to save their best for Good or Good to Firm so no excuses at all. A couple to note if you wanted a deeper investment in preference order are TOBETSO who has a win off a mark of 64 for William Haggas in a class 6 race and off 71 in a class 4 race, now with Declan Carroll he was clear 3rd best rated. Tim Easterby is starting to crank his operation into gear and there is a lot to like about MOUNT KING with a similar profile to Tobetso and a big run here is expected and another to TRACK forwards. (North)
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UTTOXETER 6.30 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles - Class 3 - 15 run - Good to Soft - (dry cloudy day)
The top end of the market includes Hitching Jacking for the Skeltons whose run at Ayr last time was promising but not overly convincing to generate a short price here and No Risk Des Flos is another who has shown promise on occasions but not one I'd really want to invest much in at the price.
The each way value to 4 places generally may well then lie with RED ROOKIE who has slowly stepped up towards 3 miles and showed enough over course and distance recently to suggest that lack of it won't be an excuse here. It's a quirky and specialty track is Uttoxeter so we've always got to be interested in a Course and Distance winner and RISK AND ROLL certainly deserves and passes closer analysis with CD winning form off a mark of 123, it runs off 123 today and this horse hasn't been overly raced but has run with merit in a succession of decent races. (DT)
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WEXFORD (Sean)
4.00 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 14 run - Soft > Heavy (showers)
I'll start by flagging up 4 horses who I really think are worth following during this summer in this sort of grade and at this sort of trip who will all probably need a run or two and slightly better ground, so for the TRACKER are Walkonthebriteside; Reve Inoi, Ranger Billy and Hand over, of them Ranger Billy would be the most forward and probably just needing this first run to become seriously competitive.
At the top of the market is Tranquil Sea who stepped up impressively to 3 miles after a series of 2 mile runs last time, I'm just not convinced about the form of that race though and I can take or leave the horse at the price so I will leave you to decide on a win saver or not, I'm in the value ca,p elsewhere.
Western Zara is my third rated but mostly a Chaser these days, off admittedly a decent hurdle mark here but a heavy faller last time so OK as a reserve if we had a non runner but if I was more confident it would be a tip and it isn't.
I'm very sweet on the chances of THEMANINTHEBOOTS and CLOUDY FOUNTAIN, Elliots horse will come on significantly for seasonal debut and is on a winning UK mark from a race at Perth and a repeat of that you would think would place here at the very least. Cloudy Fountain won cosily last time I thought so should handle the penalty and has had a nice 2 month break and no doubt they have waited for an opportunity so that is a tip in itself.
5.10 Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 furlong - 16 run - Soft > Heavy
We've a few old friends in here which I will come on to.
Fox Le Bei could be deemed one of them and after a sequence of 4-3-2 placed finishes has to be a worthy favourite?...I'm not so sure as we've been here a few times in the past. Not an ingenuine horse but one of those who always seems to find one too good, or maybe like some humans, loves being in a pack but doesn't want to be leader of the pack! Seangoell and Eddies Pride' also old friends have close form based on a recent run but I'm not sure enough at the prices today as to how solid that form is. ATACANTER is a horse who has yet to find optimum trip, it's run from 2 and a half to nearly 4 miles with credit, my personal view is that a tough 3 miles 2 to 3 miles 4 furlongs is ideal, so I'd have doubts about the trip and Course here. Dr Val and Morrie in D Quarry are decent opponents who are worth a mention.
So my old friends, MAHLER APPEAL; NEPHIN BEG ; Glenmalure Lodge and Nuttoridge.
Nuttoridge may just need the run although it has run OK fresh before and that lack of a recent run just drops it down to 4th place in the analysis. If you want a 3rd pick in the race it would be Glenmalure Lodge who has also run well off a break before and whose mark is slap bang near optimum.
My top two though are MAHLER APPEAL whose placed runs at Naas and Navan surely prove that stamina is assured and not an excuse and he just looks "due" off a nice mark. NEPHIN BEG also deserves a win on some consistent form, I'd be least sure of the 4 on this one in terms of the trip but it's not a strenuous Course and his race fitness gets the nod.
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MICHAEL - Navan
Two Divisions of a 1 mile 5 furlong Handicap at 4.15 and 4.50 both with 16 runners and reserves on Good Ground
4.15 looks more stacked to be honest than the 4.50 so I will rate accordingly.
4.15 It's very tight at the top of the market but a win saver IS recommended on Gavin Cromwell's horse GLOBAL EXPORT.
Dollar Value, Grannys boy, My Birthday Girl (if a runner as ran yesterday) and Creative Dancer probably deserve to be in the easier heat but just missed out on analysis without Global Export.
My top 3 rated are FIRM BELIEF who is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 55, gets the assistance of Seamie Heffernan and should be able to cope with amark of 60, THE TRUANT who has had 2 quiet runs but who is astonishingly well handicapped on some old from and should be race fit now, and in this race and deserving of an investment is a 3rd selection in TENTH AMENDMENT, don't be put off by the 50/1 as the horse has placed form at this track over slightly further and is fit and a mark of 47 and low weight jumps off the pasge at me.
4.50 race is far less deep in terms of likely winners, at the top of the market i can't split Glyde Ranger; Rain and Paradise Lost and as a result can't see the win value in any nor any e/w value, personally i'll have a small T/Cast perm on them.
Only SAND CASTLE and DUBAI CLOVER of the rest can be selected with sufficient confidence and both are well worth an investment.