Saturday 17th May
By SP2A Analysis
NEWBURY 3.45 - Handicap - class 2 - 6 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Firm
The percentage call here is that either ELMONJED or ARAMRAM will win this and they are hard to separate and both are at around 4/1. You could have a small win punt on both and a small reverse F/Cast to seek a bit of profit if that floats your boat.
IF there is one at a price to give us a good run for our money to hopefully place at double figure odds it may be ORAZIO who is very inconsistent but very capable on a going day and anecdotally, usually best caught fresh or freshened up, so that is the percentage each way call (RJ)
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THIRSK 5.05 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 miles - 14 run - Good to Firm
This race is very competitive with plenty of collateral form and it was very hard to dismiss the chances of Visibility, a winner last time and penalised 3lbs but not one that looks like the type to follow up, Orbaan, who is dropped in Class but whose hold up style is not at all suited to Stall 1 and who may have to sit and wait and wait for daylight with the risk others come, over the top. Infinity Blue is back on the Flat after a spell trying Hurdling but is so far best at 7 furlongs, whilst both Tele Red and Temper Trap lurk dangerously at double figure odds and either could win on a going day.
With very few decent puntin opportunities today and some enhanced places here I will go with my top 3 rated.
MOUNT KING is a Course and Distance winner in solid and consistent form, frankly deserves a win and hopefully gets the luck today. CARNIVAL ZAIN caught my eye last time running well in to 4th on seasonal debut here and this one is very well handicapped and should be cherry ripe fitness wise today and running style is suited to Stall 2, especially if orbaan misses the break inside, finally BOY DOUGLAS a more speculative punt as seemingly out of form, usually needs a few runs though and has dropped to a very nice handicap mark and worth a small punt today and also added to the TRACKER off this sort of mark as one to follow closely. (Northern)
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WEXFORD 4.10 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 14 run - Good
I don't think there is great depth to this race, one I want to TRACK and follow once we have had some rain in Heliko Conti, one to watch especially over Hurdles.
My top 3 rated with enhanced places are OUR SOLDIER a progressive type who certainly seems to have some scope to improve and whose run in defeat last time can be marked up given the horse that beat it. TRANQUIL SEA was also a shede unlucky in defeat last time and looks worth a go here based on that run, especially as they retain headgear that seemed to bring an improvement in form. Finally, JUNIPER HILL a winner at this trip off a mark of 93 last season, has struggled a bit since but the sole run here was full of promise and a mark of 96 with a 5lbs Claimer suggests a return to form is no forlorn hope (MG)
WEXFORD 5.15 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 and 1/2 furlongs - 14 run - Good
This looks more competitive and deeper than the Hurdle race earlier, Shantou Princess is a potentially improving type on handicap debut and not lightly discarded, Kiln Time was a recent winner for us over Hurdles but I would not regard him as being as good over chase Fences and Cullenwaine has proven stamina but may need damper underfoot conditions to bring that fully in to play.
My 1-2-3 are a bit speculative but carry genuine confidence and are PEBBLE BLEU a front runner who could take some catching and who has won over 3 miles at Punchestown so doesn't lack evidential stamina, JIMILS CAVE who could really kick on over fences and who may be best in this genre, promise on a few runs and ideally suited by the good ground and RIGGS who is in frm and who should be placing here at least despite a 7lbs penalty, if you want the 3rd punt. (MG)
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TRACKERS (ALL based on very recent runs)
Newbury 3.45 - Run Boy Run
Wexford 5.15 - Let's Do This
Thirsk 5.40 - Ribble Radiant
Little added ditty - Danny Mullins has just one booked ride at Wexford so at 40/1 it may be that THE DERRY GIRL has a better chance than bare form suggests!