Saturday 17th August
By SP2A Analysis
RIPON 3.20 - Great St Wilfrid Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 18 run - Good
Historically a race governed by a marked preference for a berth close to a rail and where pace angles can dictate which rail is most suited, although on balance higher numbers have done better.
A race stacked with some very popular old Sprinters and none more so than the wonderful Summerghand, now a 10 year old, still enjoying his racing and drawn in Stall 18. He would bring the roof off here if winning, and probably the roof off a lot of the other Yorkshire Courses, I won't "hex" him with a tip, I genuinely fancy a couple more, but if ever i'd be happy to lose a few quid and miss one, it's the old boy today. He'll be best mates with Mr Wagyu and Wobwobwob drawn closely to him and what a 1-2-3 that might be, I feel Wobwobwob may need a bit more cut on the ground and Mr Wagyu too a bit more cut and maybe he has just lost that half yard of absolute pace.
Drawn low, I looked closely at Alramram a promising 3 year old for Richard Hannon and drawn higher an equally promising 3 year old for Tim Easterby called Monks Dream off a 270 day break about whom the usually non committal Tim seems quite bullish!
I'll pick the most confident on each side and a small stake on a bigger priced one on each side. Can one down the middle win it, not from down the middle I suggest but if one broke fast and grabbed a rail, maybe; but not much stands out as likely to do that!
DARE TO HOPE drawn 16 looks to have a plum draw, has a bit of scope and potential still to improve and a bit of an eyecatcher last time, he has course and distance form and may just have a bit of youthful spring that the old timers can't match. KITAI looks the most interesting of those drawn low but will need some company over that side early on, that's my main worry but on form analysis KITAI looks overpriced to me.
I will have a small side bet on MONK'S DREAM and if there is one on the other side who could upset the applecart I would suggest THE TURPINATOR with some decent Course form and a canny trainer who will have it primed to run as well as the draw will allow!
(Northern)
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PERTH 7.05 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles - 16 run - Good
A competitive prize with plenty of local Trainers keen to win a nice prize.
At the top end of the market, Bullion Boss has a good shout of winning despite a penalty and would warrant close inspection for any one wanting a win saver bet. Unspeakable looks too short in the market for actual form and is not of particular interest.
Western Run was seriously considered back up in trip and just missed out and you can never discount Lisa Harrion here who runs Solway Molly who needs to conclusively prove stamina and Dalileo whose mark has gone up following an earlier win. Lucinda Russell runs a couple too and I'd fear Starlyte who has a consistent profile.
Three stood out for me though, the foremost being PAMMI for Jim Goldie. This one has had a handful of uninspiring runs but close analysis suggests it can spark into life at around this stage of the season and those quiet runs have seen the handicap mark drop to an eye watering 86, I sniff a bit of a plan here!. DIAMOND STATE is the second Lucinda Russell runner and has built a solid course and distance profile with an unseat and a third and fourth, the mark is static but I also feel that this one is ready to just step up slightly and if it can just cut out the one unforced error that has been holding it back, I really think it has a nice win in it, hopefully today.
At bigger odds, I am hopeful that ITURGEON BU BREUIL can out run generous Odds, the trip and ground are oK, the mark is OK and I think the past form suggests that this horse is best suited to flatter Courses with few undulations and an easy 3 miles may be optimum! (DT)
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CAROLYN - 2 YEAR OLDS - Newbury 4.05 Class 2 - 7 furlongs.
Into Combat ; Fitzmaurice and Aftermath dominate the market and all are exceptionally nie prospects with top class pedigrees but all have 1mile / 10 furlong pedigree line and unless they are particularly forward on debut, I'd suggest TRACKING for some mile races just down the line. Cosmic Year falls into the same category.
Of those who have had a run, Evangelic will win a race I'm sure but looked a little "green" last time and may also need a mile, I'd see Miakoda as a very nice early pace angle based on runs so far but most of those with form look opposable.
The one who really did jump off the page at me on pedigree, the fact that progeny have good 7 furlongs and 2 year old form, the Trainer form and prowess with 2 year olds and a nice draw is DUKE ORSINO. I think 7 or 8 furlongs will be ideal for this one and with a possible nice tow from Miakoda, the horse should get a lovely lead in to the final 300 yards and if it's as good and ready as I hope , could give us an excellent result at a nice price. The other one worth an investment today I feel is BOUBYAN from the Balding yard, they will want a nice one at their local track (as will Hannon), and this one has had a nice sighter and could use that to good advantage. (Caro).