Saturday 14th September

LEOPARDSTOWN 4.35 Premier Handicap - 1 mile 5 furlongs - 23 run - Good

 

I could reel off half the field here as having chances but i'm happy to take on the top few in the market who don't look great value and who lack experience in this type of big field race such as Nurburgring and Chemistry from O'Briend junior and senior, Fighter another O'Brien 3 year old and Barnso who has won a couple of lesser depth races. Comfort Zone was runner up in this race last year off a near 8 month break, has been hurdling this summer and seems to be drawn where many of the pundits seem to think is the place to be in a high number stall. He's the one out of that batch that I actually fear the most as I think proven Course form here, allied to evidence of proven stamina are vitally important clues.

 

Eagles Way is likely to lead them along for a very long way from Stall 2 and may well hang on to an enhanced place but more than likely to be gobbled up in the last 100 yards or so,. Spasiba for Mullins and Heffernan is the 6th rated on my final list and like Comfort Zone is one I most fear. Plontier, one of several for Mullins would be the one with the biggest aura and question mark as we don't really have much to quantify Polish and German form on, although they are probably more forward now than at any time in the recent past in terms of quality.

 

My top 3, which will be supplemented by a "live outsider" are SATIN who has a Course and Distance win off a mark of 93 last Autumn, drawn in Stall 7 so one who could get a nice tow off Eagles Way on the low draw side and who has had a very quiet season whilst whittling away at the penalty for that win last season and who has come down to a mark of 98 for Jessie Harrington at a nice each way price. LOT OF JOY runs for mullins with british sensation Billy Loughnane booked, this one has some very solid form at slightly further, I think the drop back in trip will be ideal and from Stall 25 if the young man is as tactically aware as he seems to be, this one could run a massive race. His stablemate BIALYSTOK for whom Tom Marquand is another interesting jockey booking is drawn in 21 and was an eyecatcher last time going in to many notebooks including mine. 

 

At the big priced end of the market not many really caught my eye with the exception of 23 THE NAMES JOCK @ 25/1, if the low draws are not too disadvantaged this bottom weight who has course winning form is another whose handicap mark suggests he has a cracking chance of an enhanced place if simply running up to the mark and the course form is the way in for me. (MG). I would point out that Sean is very very sweet about my 5th rated Comfort Zone!

 

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Doncaster 2.25 - Portland Handicap - Class 2 - 5 miles and 1/2 furlong - 22 run - Good to Soft

 

The Racing Post have probably summed this historic race up as well as it possibly can be, a battle between 5 furlong Speedsters who can be produced late and keep the afterburners on long enough and the 6 furlong specialists who are maybe gagging for the line at that trip who have the tactical pace not to be run off their feet early in the race.

 

Whilst I've had a very strong season at York this year mainly getting draw and pace right and very much those horses suited to that track, Doncaster is in my opinion a Track with far less of a draw bias, not so much of a pace bias and which seems to lend itself more to a fast finishing closer than York often does. A complete rebuild of the centuries old Racing surface a decade or so ago now has produced a very flat and smooth track with very few ridges and generally excellent drainage, many of the big Saturday tipsters are convinced you have to be drawn high and with a lot of pace around I can see why, but I believe there are equally good options drawn middle and lower too.

 

I can make cases for around a dozen of these but i think this is a big ask for a 3 year old like Shagraan at the top of the market , J M Jungle did the business for me at York last time but I do think he's a horse who is 5-6 pounds better there than here and several other places and thats even before his penalty. Aberhama Gold has been very much unsighted in 10 runs this year and may be regressing but I must mention a very appealing handicap mark now, if not for today then at Ayr later in the month, he's one VERY much to keep on the right side of. 

 

Cover Up is a strong newspaper tip and you can see why but the name sums up the issue this one as he has to be placed almost to the second for his finishing run and surrounded by others on that side with equally good chances you do fear for his much maligned and often unfairly young jockey, so whilst not a tip today, if he won I'd be delighted for the lad as many keyboard warriors would cack their pants on a racehorse! literally!!. American Affair is another highly regarded and well backed but I really think he'd need a career best to win this.

 

I'm VERY keen on 4 of the 22 runner field and in preference order they are -:

 

RUMSTAR was genuinely unlucky at Glorious Goodwood and a berth in Stall 15 here may be ideal to cover off any options high or low side of the draw and middle for diddle can actually be the best of all places here.  BERGERAC is a gnarled not so old still veteran of these races and tailor made for any cavalry charge and again stall 14 looks prime slot to me. VINTAGE CLARETS would be the best of the 5 furlong experts at seeing this out in my opinion and drawn 20 this Course Specialist has one J Spencer up, oft maligned but if there is a guy who can still thread a horse through the eye of a needle at the business end its him. Finally, DESERT COP is somewhat overlooked in the market, a mark of 92 is optimum sort of range for him, this intermediate trip is absolutely ideal and he's below his last winning mark at very juicy odds in the 28-33/1 range. (Northern)

 

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Chester 2.40 - Handicap - Class 2 - 2 miles - 13 run - Heavy

 

With Aqwaam and Emiyn coming off similar 5 month breaks and both possibly just in need of the run in what will be attritional ground and only Goobinator @ 16/1 of the remainder really catching my eye (he can be reserve in case of a non runner) I feel that the obvious each way pair here in preference order are SHANROE who ran well off a break last time at the Course and who should now be primed with that bit of race fitness Aqwaam and Emiyn both just lack and at a nice e/w price TASHKHAN who gets his ground for the first time this season and who is perfectly capable of taking advantage of it. (RJ)

 

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Bath 3.55 Handicap - Class 6 - 2 miles 1 furlong - 15 run - Good to Soft

 

There may be some nice enhanced place and indeed win value here in a field that lacks great depth.

 

Harry The Norseman may one day recapture his form of 2022 but it's been too long since he did to have a serious punt on him. There are three though who I want to take on the top of the market with.

 

I'm confident that both TRIPLE NICKLE who has proven stamina the last twice with a second and first off marks of 46 and 47 can be very strong here still off a mark of 49 and that HUMANISTE too could have solid enhanced place claims off some solid if unspectacular form. If there is one at bigger odds who looks each way value to enhanced 4th or 5th it could be the decent Hurdler ROBEAM @ 25-28/1 on a rare Flat run off a basement Flat mark of 46 (TA)

 

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