Saturday 12th October
By SP2A Analysis
Newmarket 3.40 Cesarewitch - Class 2 - 2 miles 2 furlongs - 25 run - Good to Soft (drying)
With so many Irish raiders I was asked to look at this race with Sean away on his holidays this weekend, but the more i looked at it, whilst fancying a few of our boys, I also found at least one UK raider at a big price and another dark horse from the UK at huge odds that i think are seriously underestimated.
The top three in the market and the likes of The Shunter, winner last year,Alphonse Le Grande who is still unexposed after Chester Cup and Newcastle wins, TRooper Bisdee from the always dangerous Prescott yard and Story Horse at a massive price who ran choke out in the Trial were all seriously considered after an initial cull but I came up with the 4 strongest in my final list and one at a huge price not to be underestimated.
Of the Irish contingent I think second favourite SIXANDAHALF who brings form, fitness, proven stamina and a nice mark to the table and DAWN RISING who Tom Marquand rides for JPO'Brien and who looks the most solid of solid each way shouts in the race, are very strong contenders.
At bigger prices and great each way value I would suggest you look closely at BASHFUL BOY and staying on 4th in this race last year off a mark of 86, gets in off 84, is race fit and I think the form probably hides a canny plot here and you can never ever rule out a canny plot from someone called "Pipe". The other one who looks totally overlooked is the 2023 Irish Casarewitch winner MAGELLAN STRAIT, admittedly quirky and ideally would have been drawn out very wide as hates traffic , but you've over 2 miles to sort yourself out here and I would personally completely drop out from the start and come wide in to the straight and then just let the horse run in clean air out wide....The 5th one if you want another big priced option whose pedigree and form really caught my eye is LADY PERCIVAL and I'm adding this one to my TRACKER right now for next season.
(MG)
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York 2.40 - Sprint Trophy - Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 22 run - Soft (drying)
I have looked at all of the field here, considered the draw and pace and despite yesterday's results I don't think it's as simple as picking 4 of the lowest drawn horses.
Those not lightly discounted are Eye of Dubai for the Quinn yard, Germanic wholly unexposed for Haggas who drops in trip, Hyperfocus who might have wanted yesterday's Going more than the drying today, and Allezdancer and Sergeant Wilko and Room Service for the Ryan yard, all who have chances.
I'll go with these 4 against the field in preference order.
STRIKE RED cannot be ignored, drawn 9 with 2 York runs delivering a win and runner up effort off marks of 92 and 93, I can't find any weaknesses and the draw actually gives tactical flexibility and just needs the luck in runnin that is key here.
KINGS LYNN has gone a long time without a win but has been running more consistently than its critics and many punters will appreciate, gets a low draw and off a very nice mark and could be right in contention on the far side with WOVEN drawn 3 who looks overpriced to me and who won in Class 3 last time, the 5lbs penalty doesn't put me off and I always like a horse who has found some form recently in this type of race arriving with that new found confidence.
Of those drawn higher I really like QUEST FOR FUN who is my 3rd rated (above Woven), drawn 18 drops in trip for Tim Easterby but has been running strongly and prominently to just beyond this sort of trip and the Course form, handicap mark and Going all make it something of a page jumper....(North)
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Chepstow 3.20 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle - class 2 - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 18 run - Good to Soft (drying)
Very little if any 2024 form to go on, but one who has run at a massive price will be a nice side bet.
I most like the Skelton trained DOYEN QUEST who looks good value at around 5/1.
Nicholls runs a couple but says both will need the run, of the pair I most like Irish Hill. Evan Williams is unusually bullish about Patriotik and although this is a tough ask I will TRACK this one forwards.
INTO THE PARK for the Hobbs team is my clear second rated and should be plenty forward enough.
The one at a huge price with a run is Sketons second string FOREVER WILLIAM , it does have a lot to find but it's intriguing he comes here and the Yard may believe he's come on massively over the summer and for a spin around Newton Abbot (Robin)
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TRACKERS
Hexham 1.53 Coqulino
York 2.05 Paddy The Squire / Stressful / Bennetot
York 2.40 The Green Man / Orazio / Summerghand (see tip race)
Chepstow 4.00 La Dominale
York 4.30 Gibside / Arrange
Chepstow 4.35 Pull Again Green
Fairyhouse 4.40 Coole Cottage
Chelmsford 4.45 Dumfries
Chelmsford 5.50 Golden Delite