Saturday 11th May
By SP2A Analysis
ASCOT 2.40 Victoria Cup Heritage Sprint - 7 furlongs - Class 2 - 22 run - Good (drying)
I feel that this race and market are a bit like the Chester race yesterday. It's hard to ignore the market although on this occasion I do feel there is better each way value to attack with confident selections.
There are some trusted and solid Course specialists in here and the likes of (in preference order) Popmaster (off top weight), Rhoscolyn, Bless Him, and Wobwobwob are all genuine contenders and not lightly dismissed. The draw bias on Good ground and the visual evidence yesterday suggests middle to high may be ideal but there is some early speed down low so I want at least one horse in single figure draw digits.
I was left with a final short short list of four, I'm happy and confident to go with them but I had to leave a few more out at the last cull and for the record and in preference order they were Arabian Star ; Ramazan and at bigger odds Carrytheone and Caragio.
My top 4 rated in preference order are-:
HICKORY is drawn lower than the others in Stall 6 but has a touch of class and should get a nice tow into the race and not too far from the option of running right at the middle of the pack, the jockey continues to grow in big race confidence. THE WIZARD OF EYE may well turn out to be a Group horse in a handicap here and new connections seem very bullish and the form backs up their confidence and Stall 12 looks perfect. MOSTABASHIR is rated as not more than an each way chance by the typically modest John Gosden, for sure he'll be at peak here and a high draw should not be a negative. Finally, another with plenty of possible scope is PEARLE D'OR from stall 14 and another being well backed and justifiably so. With the possible exception of Caragio and Carrytheone I don't see a winner here at a price higher than 20/1. (Speculator)
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HAYDOCK 1.35 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 18 run - Good
It's strange not to see a Skelton runner in here although his more likely contenders are probably now out in the fields enjoying a well deserved summer break. Paul Nicholls runs a couple who are towards the top of the market but I have stamina concerns about both and with one of my final 4 top rated a non runner (Gowel Road) I arrived with a top 3 who I really have good confidence in.
BOLD ENDEAVOUR was one of the few Henderson horses to run with credit at Cheltenham, he disappointed at Aintree but I think the return here where he has a good record and the better ground gives him an excellent chance of a well deserved win. JUDICIAL LAW will love this better ground and has been crying out for it and really has no excuses not to run a massive race with luck in running and PARTY BUSINESS is another who finally gets preferred ground and has been very patiently waited with and who looks to have optimum chance in these conditions (MG)
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Cork 5.05 Handicap Hurdle - 3 iles 1/2 furlongs - 18 run - Good
There are 4 or 5 in here tightly packed at the top of the betting and whilst I fear the likes of Ma Hoey, Miss D Hunter and Toor Moon, the only one at the sharp end I'd have real confidence in is TRAMPS LIKE US who should be looking to place at the very least here. I want to TRACK Walk In Time going forwards and hope it doesn't upset the applecart by being TRACKED but winning too soon like Quite Incredible did for Micheal yesterday.
The pair though that really caught my eye and who are very nicely priced and who really do thrive in Good ground conditions are STEPS MATCH who has plenty of placed form in these conditions at the trip and who will come on considerably for a recent seasonal debut and YULONG VOICE who will also really appreciate the better ground and who runs off a very nice handicap mark. (Sean / Placespotter)
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