Saturday 10th May
By SP2A Analysis
HAYDOCK 1.00 Handicap Hurdle - Class 2 - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 13 run - Good
A competitive race over this long distance for Hurdlers, the Going conditions will suit those proven with their feet rattling.
I discounted the likes of Topgun Simmy, Thank You Ma'am (4th rated overall); Bobby Dazzler and Zain Nights only after a lot of consideration and with 14 runners will go with a top pair on ratings and a 3rd as an each way option to enhanced places or a backup if we get a non runner , depending on your preferences.
TINY TETLEY was visually impressive when winning over Course and Distance last time and on that evidence I don't think it will be the penalty that stops him, only a better horse on the day. HARBOUR LAKE is more exposed but was a runner up in this race last year, looked (like several in the Yard) to be running in to form last time and a repeat of last season would be the least of my expectations. My 3rd best rated is Long Draw, another good ground specialist who has thrived on the going recently and who may be able to cope with a 6lbs rise (Robin T)
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ASCOT 2.40 - Victoria Cup - Handicap - Class 2 - 7 furlongs - Good to Firm
This has regularly been a 25-30 runner race on Good to Soft so past recent form trends won't hold much sway. The Draw bias yesterday suggested that there was NO Draw bias but more of a pace bias, as can be the case on these straight Tracks. The Stalls are in the Centre of the Track, so I would expect them all to congregate down the middle and with the Rails at full width, I'd be surprised if anything went markedly for the extremes of width of the Track initially. The pace seems to be middle to high drawn, so they are more than likely to drift towards the Stand rail in the closing stages.
There are plenty in with chances and Myai; Metal Merchant and English oak should be very competitive as should Qirat, who could be one to follow here all season and Roi De France.
I was left with a short list of 4 and reluctantly left out the great old favourite Popmaster, a draw in stall 2 just put me off but a mark below 100 does look very generous despite this veteran getting no younger, as form figures generally have not declined.
My 1-2-3 to enhance places are TEN POUNDS who seems to be both progressive and a horse whose ultimate ceiling may be at the very top end of the higher grade handicaps. DILIGENT RESDEV is a very appealing each way price and has a prominent running style that could really take it a long way in this race but proven 7 furlongs form, the win in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last season suggested a lot more to come from this horse in 2025. HICKORY ran well in this race last year for James Fanshawe and it is rarely the case that Jamie Osborne doesn't either improve or place a horse very well. I've no doubt this horse will be ready to run a big race fresh as past form suggests that and he could easily outrun very generous Odds (RJ)
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CORK 5.10 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Good (3 reserves of which one to note)
A few were considered and amongst those amongst the last to be discarded are Wyoming Baby who has shown signs that a win in this sort of race may not be far away, so I have added to the TRACKER , Driveonwill has been unlucky in running a few times and is worth a try at 3 miles as is Backonthegoagain a 3 mile P2P winner finally upped to what could be its best trip and also added to the TRACKER, I hope they don't peak too early e.g today!
An IMPORTANT NOTE about a very appealing Reserve (and reserve winners highlighted at 33/1 a couple of times suggest a decent angle) ROXBORO RIVER whose UK run last time was very interesting would be worth a side - bet at anything over 10/1 if getting a run.
With 16 declared and enhanced place my top 3 rated are STELLAR SYMPHONY at a very juicy early price, I expect a vastly improved run back on favourite ground after a Chase run last time, this horse has popped up for me a few times to win and place at nice odds and I really am quietly confident of a very bold run here with the handicapper finally relenting. LEADING ENDEAVOUR a 3 mile P2P winner was very much an eyecatcher over 2 miles 6 furlongs last time and really looks to have a cracking chance here, as does, KILN TIME, more exposed but this trip is ideal, a win last time suggests the horse is in peak form and my only slight niggle would beif the going was too firm, if it is, they might well pull him and that of course brings in Roxboro River!
(Sean)
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LEICESTER 6.00 - Handicap - Class 6 - 6 furlongs - Good to Firm - 14 run
I fancy a bash in this lowly grade in a race that may lack depth.
Raft Up and Silky Robin should be competitive, Pembrokeshire is one who I think could easily outrun nice e./w Odds, Edvard Greig is dropped markedly in trip but the uphill climb may bring him in to play provided he is not run off his feet in the first half of the race and Arc Shadowfax is a dangerous runner based on AW form, not sure what he will deliver on firm turf though.
My top 2 rated are MRS TRUMP who has a good Course record, will come on for a return run and I think Stall 12 is an ideal berth here, IDEAL GUEST is another Course regular with an excellent win record and overall profile and looks very strong from one of the lower Draw numbers and if you ant one to enhanced places or as a reserve if we have a non runner then LADY IN HAVANA is another who looks very well handicapped and ready to run in to form, stall 2 just put me off a little. (The Advisor)
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HEXHAM 6.20 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 11 run - Good
The likes of Mellificent; who may be very well handicapped IF a recent wind operation helps and Blakey Boy, who is the one they all have to beat were strongly considered. I also think that we have yet to see the best of Singapore Boy @ 14/1 in the UK so I have added this one to the TRACKER.
My top 2 rated though are AMBASSADOR whose odds look very attractive as the step back up in trip looks a very interesting move off a very appealing mark in ideal conditions and IMPERIAL DATA for the always dangerous Rebecca Menzies yard and this horse looks a typically improving type for her, cheek pieces added and a slight drop in trip really suggest that a big run is anticipated. (Northern)
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That's all for today.
A few horses are mentioned as being "added to the TRACKER". We will reintroduce add ing the TRACKER horses for the day at the bottom of the email from Monday, we have weeded out around 200 Flat and 50 summer jumpers who had stagnated in the old list, so it's all new data for the 2025 summer seasons, so fewer horses in the TRACKER but all that are will be based on VERY recent and not outdated evidence.