Royal Ascot Day 4 - Friday 20th June
By SP2A Analysis
ASCOT 3.40 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - Good to Firm - 19 run
I don't think this is a great renewal and of the 19 runners only 5 really caught my eye. It's hard to put up Stressfree, who is very much a hold up horse on the evidence of how key pace is this week on the Round Course, but we have seen pace fall apart on a couple of occasions, so in the event it does STRESSFREE might be a handy small e/w saver. I also consider Naqeeb who might just be returning to a bit of form.
My clear top pair though are MOUNT ATLAS a Course winner, in solid form about whom I can't really find any weaknesses and HAND OF GOD who has a very impressive 10 furlongs Course win from 2024, goes up in trip ad whilst stamina is a small niggle the pedigree suggests it should not be an excuse if the horse is sensibly ridden. FRENCH DUKE would certainly have been a top 2 tip had it had a run, the horse had a small setback but it is the target race and I'm sure they would not run if they had significant fitness concerns (The Advisor)
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ASCOT 6.10 - Handicap - Class 2 - 5 furlongs - 27 run - Good to Firm
We all concur that the High bias may not be as significant over this minimum trip as it is over further and early pace will dictate how the final result pans out.
Purely on merit of actual form, I ended up with a shortlist of 8 horses, of whom Adreshia; Mr Lightside, Miss Lamai and Kings Call were drawn high, Zayer is drawn in the middle and Stormy Impact, Lexington Blitz and Maw Lam are drawn low.
If we consider pace and draw and overall form, my top 6 rated of the 8, discarding Maw Lam and Kings Call in 7th and 8th are as follows. My top 4 I would be keenest on but with 27 runners and only 2 main handicaps today, a small e/w on the other pair is strongly suggested.
ADRESHIA is drawn 24 and very much the form horse of the race in my opinion, had this race been yesterday with the draw bias it would have been my NAP of the week in the high handicaps, if the draw bias doesn't alter much I'll actually be disappointed if it doesn't win this. ZAYER is drawn down the middle, gets cheekpieces and both on form and the added benefit of blinding early pace either side should get a great tow into the race. MR LIGHTSIDE is drawn 29, loves rattling Good to Firm ground and if that rail is still the "golden highway" I would be very disappointed if we're not in the first 3 home.
STORMY IMPACT is up 5lbs for a great run in the 3 year old Dash at Epsom, this better ground should see it improving enough to cover off that rise and if the draw gives it any chance a very big run is expected and one to TRACK forwards too. LEXINGTON BLITZ is also drawn low in Stall 2, had an excellent Speed Rating and due to the draw is a cracking each way price. Finally , MISS LAMAI who is drawn 26 and one who holds every chance on known draw bias. The other pair Maw Lam (drawn 3) and Kings Call drawn 25 are genuinely serious dangers. (RJ)
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2.30 - Both IPANEMA QUEEN who was very impressive at The Curragh when not thought to be 100% fit and Venetain Sun who is drawn 1, which may not be ideal caught my eye. Fitzella gets the placepot nomination.
3.05 - LEOVANNI is a very solid each way poke here and if a Low Draw is not a disadvantage so is ARABIAN SUN. Shadow Of Light is a strong favourite.
5.00 - PURPLE RAINBOW on some solid form and ZGHARTA whose drop in trip from 10 to 8 furlongs should ideally suit this cavalry charge are sporting each way bets. Bountiful gets a strong placepot perm nomination.
(Speculator)
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PLACEPOT
2.30 - 9 Ipanema Queen / 5 Fitzella
3.05 - 9 Shadow Of Light / 17 Leovanni NR / (13 Arabian Dusk)
3.40 - 8 Mount Atlas / 7 Hand Of God
4.20 - 6 Farakeya / 9 Kon Tiki
5.00 - 17 Bountiful / 21 Purple Rainbow
5.35 - 6 Nightwalker / 8 Puppet Master
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TRACKER
Ascot 3.40 - Satin (deep race)
Down Royal 7.45 - Shoot to Kill (e/w poke)
Goodwood 7.38 - Organ (favourites chance)