Royal Ascot Day 3 - Thursday 20th June
By SP2A Analysis
GOLD CUP - 4.25
It's far from a vintage renewal and most of the younger ones have yet to conclusively prove form beyond 2 miles and the favourite looks vulnerable too. The one who stands out as each way value is COLTRANE, a veteran now but rock solid form at the trip, likes the ground and a gallant runner up in this last year. Of the others Trawlerman will be the other placepot perm horse. (Spec)
BRITANNIA Handicap - 3 year olds Class 2 - 1 mile - 30 run
I ruled out anything drawn too low as it doesn't yet seem to be the place to be in terms of the best ground, over 1 mile I think middle to high seems to be best. That removed the likes of Cogitate and Volterra and I also narrowly left out Lautrec who is drawn in stall 32 and Mickley who looks to have a solid shout.
That left me with a top 5 looking for the win and enhanced places here.
SKUKUZA is a Distance winner, a nice profile with some scope and I think Stall 16 is ideal as it is probably the perfect slot but also scope to follow the pace on either side if necessary. WHIP CRACKER stays 9 furlongs and the drop back to a mile suits a big field fast paced race and if it can get cover early from stall 28 and get a nice run through, I fancy this one to be finishing as well as anything.
DASHING DARCEY won last time out and looks a progressive and improving horse and Stall 25 again looks to be a nice draw. QIRAT was impressive at goodwood last time, not the first one to struggle to find a gap there but when it did it got the job done very nicely and another who looks to be in prime form. Finally, for those who want the fifth option is NATIVE WARRIOR @ 14/1 drawn 31 and one of the most unexposed in the race and well worth a small flutter if you want one over the four top rated. (TA)
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BUCKINGHAM PALACE HCap - Class 2 - 7 furlongs - 28 run
There are some more familiar names in here and in agreement with The Advisor I think those drawn low might be at a disadvantage, so for that reason alone, I have left out GORAK, who never seems to get the luck of the draw but who was actually my top rated otherwise, Kings Time and Percy's Lad are also unfortunate i think f my ssessment of the draw is correct.
I think ENGLISH OAK is the one to beat but at 4/1 it's nothing more than a small win saver option in a field of this depth and ability.
The likes of Bopedro who has a nice draw but who might be tapped for toe early on, Fresh the ultimate "nearly horse" but who looks regressive now and Northern Express whose mark looks just a little too high were crossed off the final cut and whilst i fear all of them there were 4-5 I rated higher with more confidence.
ALZAHIR really has caught my eye and imagination, an ex Gosden horse who hasn't yet fully fired for David O'Meara but from a nice high berth it's the one who really could start to fire now and I'll be very disappointed if it doesn't go very close here. MOSTABSHIR is one who is into the "now or never" category and one who clearly has the ability but just needs to put it all together, a draw in Stall 21 offers no excuses, DIVINE LIBRA is another drawn in the 20's who looks to have the necessary scope to improve and rounding off the top 4 is CARRYTHEONE very much an in form type drawn in Stall 23 and the penalty might not yet stop this one pushing it's rating considerably higher despite some previously exposed form.
If you want to play the bigger enhanced places then the 5th rated and very solid each way hope is BARADAR who is a little out of form but who has excellent Course and Distance credentials and drawn right in the middle of this field and with tongue tie and cheek pieces they are certainly trying everything possible. Some of you like a really big priced one who may shock them and of those t the bottom of the market I'm quietly confident that 10 TACARIB BAY @ 40/1 who has decent Course form off a nice handicap mark is one of the better 33-40/1 pokes in here drawn in Stall 10.
(MG)