Royal Ascot Day 2 - Wednesday 19th June
By SP2A Analysis
2.30-:
I'm very keen here on three of them, a couple drawn high who may well aid each other in terms of a pace angle and as long as they don't take each other on too soon, could dominate the latter stages and the third rated, drawn lower but with some excellent Course and Distance form.
KASSAYA is a very promising filly who could make up into a Guineas contender next season with her 1 mile pedigree, no lack of speed though and that pedigree suggests a fast run 5 furlongs with a closing uphill finish is ideal from Stall 21. AMESTRIS, drawn next door in Stall 22, made noticeable improvement from first to second run and that extra bit of race experience may prove crucial here. The prominent running style in a nice win at Newmarket was visually impressive as was the way she handled the rising ground.
If there is one to really note drawn lower it is Course and Distance winner MISS RASCAL from the resurgent Paul Cole yard, you can't fault the form so far and the ability to handle the Course, Distance and ground is a big plus (The Advisor)
5.05-:
With the lack of any definitive draw bias here and no soft ground to weed out half the field it really is a tough puzzle. I do have more than a hunch though that we could be about to see a periodic "changing of the guard" with some unexposed but clearly talented 4 year olds arriving to take on some of the better known more exposed regulars who have dominated this type of race for the past 2-3 seasons. I think middle to high with the ability to lay up with or near the pace is key but I've a couple drawn lower middle or lower to cover the draw conundrum. I've 5 top rated and then a really big priced one for those who like an outsider. Take the top 4 rated as it's one of THE betting heats of the year and the 5th rated if you wish in terms of investment.
Before we look at those a quick mention for those who were the last batch to be discarded and small note as to why, Aerian Power (draw); Daysofoflives (not quite good enough), Metal Merchant (Going) ; Silent Film (was a tip but non runner); Streets Of Gold (trip); Tempus (not quite good enough); The Gatekeeper (Going) ; Wild Tiger (value v form)- I anticipate good runs and hopefully the winner isn't in there!
My top 5 rated and long shot in preference order
REAL GAIN - drawn 29, laid out for the race and just looks very solid and progressive type.
SONNY LISTON - drawn 19 - should be at absolute peak now as a 5 year old in form and really can't see any weaknesses.
HOLLOWAY BOY - drawn 23, a 4 year old who has an impressive juvenile profile. The yard has done exceptionally well with 2 and 3 year olds in the past few years and it will be interesting now to see if they can really develop some heritage Sprint race ammunition from those recent crops. This one isn't obvious but one I really have a gut feel for!
THUNDER BALL - drawn 3 - a big price and out of form a little but has some very interesting form from last year and is another 4 year old with some considerable potential to make up in to a nice regular in this sort of race, the addition of blinkers is a massive factor too in the selection
TALIS EVOLVERE - drawn 11 - been in some decent races this year and looks a late developer for a top yard, nice Turf and AW form and AW form at Ascot is usually a better indicator than at most tracks, especially on Good to Firm. I was particularly impressed with a win down the 1 mile AW straight at Newcastle off a mark of 94 (runs off 100-5 lbs claim here) and the way this gelding stuck his head down and battled right to and through the line.
The rank outsider / big priced one is 27 KINGS CODE @ 50/1 - SDS rides for David Evans drawn 18 so should be right in the mix and a horse with some 9-10 furlong stamina who could nick a late place!
(Northern)
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Placepot Perm
2.30 Kassaya + Amestris (9 + 2 ) - tip race
3.05 Illinois + Birdman (4 + 1 )
3.45 Rogue Milenium + Laurel (11 + 6)
4.25 Inspiral + Horizon Dore ( 10 + 4)
5.05 Real Gain + Sonny Liston (9 + 1)
5.40 Elim + Aurora Dawn (20 + 23)
6.15 n/a
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