Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 17th June
By SP2A Analysis
Ascot Stakes 5.00 - Handicap - Class 2 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 20 run - Good to Firm
There are 6 of the 20 runners here who caught my eye and they don't include the top pair in the market . A big Irish contingent and some solid home based form.
Comfort Zone is a dark horse back on the Flat and having disappointed over Jumps it would not be a big surprise to see this one outrun odds, and at a big price too, I reluctantly discarded Dawn Rising, a Course winner over a furlong further in 2023, out of form for much of the time since but some valid excuses and this was ny 5th rated so a reserve in waiting IF the Going proves too firm for some later on.
I'm most confident in ALPHONSE LE GRANDE whose form last season in big field races over 2 miles plus suggests he can be a force again this season stepping up in trip slightly here, MANXMAN has made meteoric progress over the past few years and again the form of 2024 looks rock solid and he looks the strongest of the home team to me. At bigger Odds I thought that MR HAMPSTEAD an improving 4 year old whose form ties in with Manxman and NURBURGRING a fascinating runner for JP O'Brien and Colin Keane, who could have a memorable day here, and whose draw in Stall 20 will require some tactical genius, but let's see how good the horse and jockey are. (The Speculator)
---
Ascot 6.10 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 16 run - Good to Firm
Around half a dozen of the 16 runners here merited a close look and I will name my top 3 rated in the hope all 16 go to post although enhanced places will be secure. Charlus the sole Mullins runner will no doubt be hugely supported but the bare form does look suspect . Aeronautic for JPO'B looks primed and was my 5th rated and if there is a non runner then Barnso, who could be suited by the going and pace of the race could be one who may come from the back of the field late on.
I can't look past FRENCH MASTER though here as a WIN BET for the Gosden team, an improving 4 year old who could win a hatful of races over the next couple of years and step up to 2 miles in time. My favoured pair to follow him home are LAVENDER HILL MOB who definitely needs to improve again but whose progress and recent form suggests he can and JESSE EVANS the veteran of the field whose overall profile put him bang in contention and frankly a solid e/w chance in a race that lacks real depth (RJ).
----
FULLY ANALYSED STAKES RACES-
Ascot 3.05 - Coventry Stakes - 2 year old - 6 furlongs - 21 Run - Good to Firm
A real cavalry charge and to be honest, we can only visualise and surmise any Draw bias. THere is a LOT of pace drawn middle to high but the early Going stick suggests the far side might be slightly firmer Going as the sun gets more exposure that side with the Stand providing some shadow. As they water more then later in the week the Stand side may be more favoured as well "water trickles down hill off the camber".
I'll hedge my bets a middle high and lower.
There are some at very big prices from Yards that have a track record in the race so let's just make honourable mentions for Ballistic Missile for the Hannons, Super Soldier for Karl Burke and a dark one for the in form Sangsters in Bone Marra.
My top 3 though are ANDAB for the O'Brien yard who seems a bit overlooked in the market but whose actual form looks VERY strong, AMERICAN GULF would be hugely popular winner for the home team and that one has done nothing wrong at all so far and ROCK ON THUNDER comes from a Yard tat seems to find one in the 2 year old races almost every year here.
Finally, for a small side bet and one who grew on me the more I looked at it's run on debut is KOLKATA KNIGHT - it may be outclassed here but very striking win and one to TRACK possibly into easier waters later on. (Caro)
---
Ascot 3.40 - King Charles 111 Stakes - 3 year old plus - 5 furlongs - 23 run - Good to Firm
The most competitive race of the day and an intriguing dilemma.
Lots to consider and honourable mentions for American Affair who certainly deserves a shot at Group Company and very much a dark horse, Regional who is relatively lightly raced but with some strong form lines and one at a HUGE PRICE on whom I propose a small side each way bet in FROST AT DAWN who may lead them all a merry dance from a high draw and on Good to Firm Going if getting first run may place at very succulent odds.
My top 4 rated though are NIGHT RAIDER who could get a nice tow from stall 7 and try to make it all on that side, the Yard is likely to have a very good week and it may start here. STARLUST gets ideal ground and it will be very disappointing if this one isn't in the first 4 home, PRIME ART (actually one of two SEAN was very keen on this week) who was supplemented late, could get a real pull right up the rail and Johnny murtagh is very adept at training them for the day and BELIEVING who is drawn far side in Stall1 a mare with all of the right sort of form lines and IF Ryan Moore makes a strong start to the meeting certainly one he'll look to be right in the thick if it iF the draw allows! (The Advisor + some divine help)
----
PLACEPOT
2.30 3 Dancin Gemini / 8 Notable Speech
3.05 - 2 + 1 (see tips)
3.40 - 6 + 9 (see tips)
4.20 - 1 Field Of Gold / 6 Ruling Court
5.00 - 14 + 8 (see tips)
5.35 - 12 Meydaan / 8 Enfjaar
---
TRACKERS
Ascot 6.10 Aeronautic (see tip race - strong e/w)