Navan - Tuesday 7th May
By SP2A Analysis
NAVAN - 4.05 / 4.35 - Two Divisions - Handicap - 1 miles 2 furlongs - Yielding > Soft - 18 run (both)
Navan is all about stamina, they start at the end of the back straight and have a decent run in to the sweeping left hand bend and then it is a long and steady climb up to the finishing line. It is not a track for a horse unproven at the trip and if one is stepping up in trip you'd need to see clear evidence of it finishing strongly at a mile or 9 furlongs and some clear stamina lines in its pedigree.
4.05-:
Not too many of these really catch the imagination and at the top end of the market I'm happy to take on Palo Dino who makes handicap debut off a break of 225 days from a Yard where invariably this type gets over-bet and it's just as likely to finish last as first. Jazz Forever is an AW winner, solid at the trip but so far is far more accomplished at Dundalk than on Turf.
Rampage has had 3 solid runs at a mile, is OK at 9 furlongs, so well worth a try at 10 furlongs, there would be any number of easier 10 furlongs than this though, so although a genuine danger I will reluctantly leave out of the investments. I would not be surprised to see the likes of Hijo De La Luna; Gardone or Cleopatra's Needle winning races this summer, but none of them are ideally suited to these conditions.
I'm very keen on CHARLIE DARLING and APPRENTICE here and have a strong fancy that MAYO FOR SAM will make mincemeat of his big early Odds for a lesser stake.
CHARLIE DARLING has won at 14 furlongs, regularly runs at 12 furlongs and should be staying on better than anything here IF they don't try to get too far forwards too soon. It'll need a patient ride but the proven stamina is clear. APPRENTICE is a Tipperary winner at 9 furlongs off a mark of 61, was clobbered for that by a 12lbs rise, has run well enough at this trip under that penalty but has worked its way back down to that mark of 61, so really has an ideal opportunity here. Finally, MAYO FOR SAM is one who has yet to find its ideal trip but has run well to this point a few times over fruther before fading and if they can just old on to him long enough and not get too excited, he could place here to enhanced places at least.
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4.35 -
Elsas Pride the favourite has the proven form but on past evidence will probably need the run. Arbaawi and Akmaam are solid performers at a mile and deserve their market position but have it all to prove at this trip stamina wise. Master Dunraven and Master Garvey may need their runs and Duleek Street who have been disappointing of late, would have a chance if they recapture 2022 form.
I am very keen though on JAWHARY, tipped last time when fading late on and will surely come on for that run and with a Distance win in the UK off a mark of 70, really no excuses off a mark of 64. SANDYMAN also has UK winning form at the trip off a mark of 70 for Mick Appleby is NH fit and has a pipe-opener on the Flat and another one who should be competitive off an Irish mark of 60. I'd also throw in SUNDAY EVENING whose best run so far was over an extended mile, has stamina to prove but a clear 10 furlong pedigree and should be improving now over this sort of trip. (all MG)