Monday 9th September
By SP2A Analysis
Both Michael and Sean are keen to highlight the very positive chances of the 1st reserve in both of these Divisions....you'll know that can be a lucrative option so both suggest a 50% stake investment e/w on CLOUDY FOUNTAIN @ 25/1 in the 5.05 and IVANE @ 18/1 in the 5.40
Galway 5.05 Handicap Hurdle - Div 1 - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - Soft - 20 run
I've concerns about a few at the head of the market, Lizlucky off a break, Repeat That in the ground and a 3 day turnaround, Sydney Cruise and Mrs Biddle at this trip in the ground. Glenmorefiftyfour and Divilabother are ones I've similar concerns about and; I'll TRACK West Clare who will be one to follow if proving it gets this sort of trip; and rate Oskar High who won this race 2 years ago but who has regressed somewhat since as the biggest danger to my 4 top rated (please note the 1st reserve comment above)
I'm very keen on IMBOIC at a nice each way price, back over hurdles on soft f=ground he can do some real damage off a mark of 80 if repeating some promising Hurdles runs earlier in his career. HE FITZ IN is a bit of a cliff horse, keeps switching codes but i really can't find any more excuses for him if he can't be very very strong in this race in these conditions. A pair who jumped off the page at bigger Odds are LIGHTONTHERIVER whose 4th place run over this sort of trip at Fairyhouse was very promising off a mark of 80 and DANESFORT MAYFLY who although having torride year or so does have strong enough past form to suggest this mark and a 66/1 early quote could look silly IF she just clicks back in to known form. (MG)
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Galway 5.05 Handicap Hurdle - Div 2 - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - Soft - 20 run
I'll take on the Elliott favourite back over hurdles off a break and actually think that if you want a win saver in this race that 4/1 about Ballagh Star is a far stronger punt. That's at your discretion, I'm after more each way value. I think Kilmurvy JJ needs fences and less rain, Delias Pet usually needs a couple of runs to get fully revved up, Lets Do This still has a little bit too much weight, and Queenofthelodge, who may make in to a nice type could be of interest in future runs. I'm not sure the mud will suit Who's Houdini here and a bigger danger and my 6th rated was Hockworthy Flyer whose Downpatrick form exceeds other venues at the moment. (please note the 1st reserve comment above).
I think the top pair here stand out as BUT WHAT ABOUT ME who was upsides the winner although fading when falling over 3 miles last time and the drop back in trip if there are no mental or physical stars looks a sound move. GOLD HAVEN was staying on here last March over slightly shorter but gets this trip and looks primed and ready off noce double figure Odds.
At bigger Odds I really am very very sweet on the chances of CHURCH LANE third in this race last year on soft off a mark of 80, lightly raced and quiet since but a very similar prep run and lightning may well strike twice at nice e/w Odds and it was just 7/1 last year and 4-5 times that this!. STEELERS APPEAL is another who is interesting and looks over-priced on some past Course form and has had a nice prep run in a Chase but better back over hurdles with a nice 7lbs Claim (Sean)
(please note the 1st reserve comments above)