Monday 7th July
By SP2A Analysis
Ayr 2.00 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Good to Soft
At the top of the market here we have Hill O Rue who is upped in trip and carrying a 6lbs penalty and Penelope's Sister , who ran here yesterday and who may or may not come out again. At the prices and with the caveats noted, I'm happy to take both on. Say What You See is a potentially nice 3 year old worth a try up in trip , Trtaragan and Captain Hanley come over from Ireland with average looking form but Irish trained horses are always a danger to ignore here. At bigger prices I have added both Cisco Disco and Jachin (available at 25/1 plus early markets) to the TRACKER and a big run from either would not be a big surprise, both are well handicapped and both could be worth following forwards.
My top 3 rated are NATURALIA who looks primed and ready to win and who ticks all of the boxes here for me, WE STILL BELIEVE won this race last year off a mark of 59, runs bang on that same mark again and is fine on Good to Soft Going, with some enhanced places, if you want a pop at the extra place then my clear 3rd best rated is YOUNG FIRE, a veteran who can still pop up with a big run and a runner up last time to evidence that belief. a mark of 58 is eye-watering when you consider he was winning a Class 4 race off a mark of 72 at this stage of last season. (RJ)
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Ayr 4.40 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile - 14 run - Good to Soft
The top 3 are tightly packed at prices around 4/1, of the trio the most likely is G=Harswell Duke, a decent operator at this level but not one I'd be wanting to back at 4/1 in any race. I think there is value outside of the top 3 in the market.
Trais Fleurs has to be a danger off a reduced mark, Runninsonofagun is one I will TRACK forwards for new connections and he has chances as do Madame Plaintiff and Summer Island. Another one capable of improving and worth TRACKING also is Chiefman; a lightly raced 10 furlong winner, who may find this trip a bit sharp!
My 2 top rated and some way clear of the rest and at nice e/w prices are EVELYNS PHOENIX a nice mare whose best run of form last year was in July and August, a quiet start to this season but one who looks ready to win again and to follow over the coming weeks slap bang on her last winning mark. UNFORGETTABLE BELLE had genuine reasons for not placing better last time, has run a race and still has scope to improve and i don't this is a ceiling mark yet by any stretch of the imagination. (Northern)
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Ayr 5.15 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 5 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Soft
At the head of the market Trojan Chief is upped in trip and Whatgoingonmarvin is a wholly unexposed handicap debutant for Sir mark Prescott, also upped in trip who comes in to the "could be anything or nothing category"
Almafina is added to the TRACKER, an unexposed Nathanial filly on handicap for Karl Burke and also added is Sophisticate who missed the whole of 2024 and has had one quiet run back for Jim Goldie. I would assess both Church Warden and Paper Doll as dangers but no more.
My clear top 3 rated are BILLY NO MATES who looks by far the strongest and most reliable on known form of the top 4-5 in the market and EBONY MAW who had some sound runs last summer off marks around 63 and 64 and who is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 60, so potentially very well handicapped and some proven form here others don't have at least yet.
My 3rd tated in the event of a non runner is FIFTSHADESARESDEV who comes here in decent form with ideal conditions and just pipped by the proven course for of EBONY MAW. (Speculator)
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TRACKERS
Ayr 2.30 - Keep Warm
Roscommon 7.43 - Onefortheditch