Monday 6th May
By SP2A Analysis
Bath 4.00 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 11 run - Good to Soft
I was most interested in 5 of these after analysis and I think Afloat is clearly the one to best IF fit enough but at the price and in likely conditions the "if" is big enough to leave it alone in terms of an investment. Hotaugustnight ran too freely over Course and Distance last time so cheek-pieces may help but there were a couple I thought more suited to conditions.
Royal Toast (@ 40/1 odds to 4th) is intriguing and was 3rd best rated, purely on some Irish form in these conditions and at the price if you fancy a small flutter then he could really outrun those early odds.
My top 2 rated though are BLOODHOUND who made a promising Handicap debut and who has plenty of scope and the pedigree suggests this will be best trip and offers some soft ground form too. MOONLIT CLOUD has form in May in terms of winning and this likable Mare has won off 59 and 61 and placed off 69, is race fit and won in soft conditions and competitively handicapped off a mark of 70
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Bath 5.45 Handicap Class 6 - 1 mile - 13 run - Good to Soft
A much deeper race and as such I'll play a couple at much bigger speculative Odds.
Moon Over the Sea and Andronomous might be a nice reverse forecast. Sao Timothy ran very well here at the last meeting so is feared, Dappled Light and Galactic Glow are a pair I've just added to the TRACKER (more of the TRACKER tomorrow) as both will prefer Good summer ground more. James Park Woods too usually benefits from a run or two.
That left me with a trio at bigger odds and whilst I think that Dourado who has won fresh and is a distance winner may revive, I just couldn't take fitness enough on trust to put me off a couple with some telling form (Dourado should be a good reserve therefore if either of these don't run).
DEVORE is an ex Johnny murtagh horse who looks well handicapped off 57 on some soft ground form over there, as does DANESFORT who has shown potential at the trip and in soft conditions and off this sort of mark and the addition of cheek-pieces really caught my eye.
It's the sort of race where I think a couple of speculative punts may pay off and you should stake accordingly as a speculative type bet.
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Windsor 6.00 Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 16 run Soft
Fullforward should be TRACKED as it'll need better ground than this. The trip is a niggle about Roscioli although the jockey booking suggests they expect a big run. Curtiz has some decent form in the past but you have to go back to 21/22 to find it and Trojan Truth ticks all the right boxes except soft Going, so just missed out. Not a lot else really stood out other than my 2 selections.
DAPHNE MAY is fit from the AW and is 6lbs below its last Turf winning mark in Soft ground at this trip, looks VERY solid to me. At bigger odds, STORM VALLEY looks cracking each way value is AW fit too, handles soft ground, trip is optimum and really another who I can't find any reason not to invest.
(All Flat Turf tips today from The Advisor)
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Warwick 6.05 Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 1 furlong - 14 run - Good to Soft
A lot in with chances here and I narrowed it down to three final choices.
He Is A Cracker is very lightly raced but clearly talented and it's all about if he's fit enough to win. Pride of Paris is upped in trip against some proven and experienced stayers, Steal My Sunshine is a Skelton runner so can't easily be discounted but upped in trip and needs to improve, Jack The Farmer was very progressive last year, was runner up in this race off a mark of 72 and finished off a mark of 93, so not lightly discounted but may need the run on balance. Lepash @ 33/1 has a squeak at a big price on one specific Doncaster run so not out of it by any means. Efride @ 20/1 too is well worth a note at least on a Uttoxeter win at just short of 3 miles and is finally back to that sort of mark, I'll TRACK both Lepash and Elfride forwards therefore for the summer.
My clear top rated is NEWTONIAN despite being a 20 runner plus Maiden, very consistent, ticks all the right boxes and deserves a win, I have no doubt about its courage in a battle that just deserves a break! I would find it very hard to split PRINCE DE JUILLEY and CASPERS COURT @ 14/1, push come to shove I just favour PDJ who returned to form last time and I do think David Bass who rides here very well and whose prominent run style is well suited, just gets him the vote over CC who could be very well handicapped and a return to better ground is a significant boost (RT)
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