Monday 28th October
By SP2A Analysis
Ayr 1.47 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 11 run - Good to Soft
The top pair in the market are Magical Arthur who is in form but penalised for his last win and I don't think 15/8 is any sort of win value, he's joined by What A Flirth from the Skelton yard who has shown promise but not quite delivered as yet, he could shorten in the market but not a stand out for me. If you wanted a canny small reverse F/Cast to cover off the market being spot on, that might be your best option.
However, with the exception of Not In Kansas who on past evidence will likely need this run, my top 2 clear rated horses are ITURGEON DU BREUIL who was placed over Course and Distance off a mark of 79 in March in what I think was his best recent run by some margin, he's had a couple of runs so should now be stripping really fitter than some of these and off a mark of 78, I will be very disappointed if he's not in the first 3 home at the very least. Joining him is TOPKAPI STAR a game winner over two and a half miles at Sedgefield last time but equally capable in fact possibly better at this trip, a penalty may not stop him either as the revised mark of 86 is one he's been competitive off before. (North)
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Redcar 2.30 Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Good to Soft
A number of unexposed 3 year olds upped in trip, a few who are better on the AW returning probably using this as a prep run for an AW campaign and a pair at the top of the market in Fast Fred and Two B Tanned who don't inspire me, (may be worth a small rev f/cast like the Ayr Race - Jon) ;
Of the remainder, the biggest dangers to my 2 selections are LADY PHOEBE who is on a dangerous mark and who would ideally want a fast pace to aim at and Recorwoman, who is an habitually slow starter who may not always finish as fast as the visual impression gives. Of the pair and with enhanced places LADY PHOEBE would be a third pick or reserve at your discretion.
My top 2 rated though both look very over-priced.
VISITANT is 11 years old now but can rattle home at this trip and further and if some of the younger horses go off too fast and the pace falls apart its tailor made for VISITANT off a lowly but competitive mark and equally well handicapped here is ON THE BUBBLE a Course winner over a mile in heavy conditions who has been Hurdling and who should find this an ideal trip off a mark of 53 that still looks generous. (RJ)
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TRACKERS
Wexford 2.10 Optional Mix
Wexford 2.45 Coole Cottage
Galway 4.20 Beautiful Chaos / Status Green / (both currently reserves)
Newcastle 7.15 Gregorianna / Pop Favourite