Monday 26th August
By SP2A Analysis
Chepstow 3.35 - Handicap - Class 2 (Mile Series Final) - 12 run
This is a pretty weak Class 2 but gives some who have qualified a pop at a nice prize so you can be sure they will all be giving maximum effort.
At the top of the market, I don't think the softer Going will suit Lady Flora and Kalama Sunrise has to hit a handicap ceiling at some point and I think that's today. Stockpile under top weight should be there or thereabouts and was my 3rd highest rated so the notional reserve. Fact Or Fable is one of a pair in the TRACKER for this but I just feel this one is best at 7 furlongs and the rain is a negative despite some strong Course and Distance form. Racing Demon who runs off a mark 11lbs higher than its Course and Distance winning mark and Letter Of The Law who likes to run prominently and who would have a squeak from Stall 1 are not no-hopers by any stretch at bigger prices.
My clear top rated though are VALKYRIAN who is in the Tracker and who has Course and Distance winning form and who is usually very consistent and with form on the ground really has no obvious chinks and is a confident each way poke for the Osbournes. SOL DAO is also consistent off this sort of mark and just has the look of one targeted at this race for a canny yard who can prepare one to the second a Course winner, a winner at this trip, ground versatile and a nice e/w price (TA)
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Ripon 3.47 Rowels Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 10 run
I am happy to take on both Watcha Matey and Deborah's Dream at prices under 4/1 off their current marks and overall win value. Garden Oasis is a standing dish over Course and Distance but looks high in the weights but never underestimate a CD specialist here, whilst I will TRACK forwards Spirit Catcher who also has Course and Distance winning form but who may still need this run after a slow start to this season and may also need a few lbs off the handicapper, another not lightly discarded. I'm also adding the so far disappointing PADISHAKH for O'Meara to the Tracker as we have seen regularly that these imports do find a level they can win off and this one might be about to do that in the coming weeks.
The pace angles here are Love De Vega for the Johnstons and ON THE RIVER a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 80 and running off 82 here who travels very strongly and of the pair of prominent runners is the one i think most likely to stay on and one. However, that likely strong pace could set the race up for a fast finishing closer and despite being at the bottom end of the market, that could be PISANELLO for O'Meara who may have been adroitly placed here off nice racing weight and proven form over further and best in rain softened ground. (North)
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Ballinrobe 6.40 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Soft
Kiln Time can win fresh and the ground will be fine and in a race where there are very few that really caught my eye given the trip and Soft ground and more rain, he would be an each way price. I will TRACK Church Lane who tends to be lightly raced but who can win races when tuned up and this one may just still be needed and they would not bottom it out on heavy Going.
I am most keen on I AM ROCCO who stepped up from 2 miles to over 3 miles in a non handicap last time, hunted round and was a bit of an eye catcher, a drop back in trip seems very logical and with so many question marks about the others, the market (at least early markets) may have overlooked him. At big odds with so many having doubts, I will suggest a small poke to enhanced places on MISS LAURA very lightly raced but some Course and Distance form and worth a small punt.
(Sean)