Monday 21st October
By SP2A Analysis
Plumpton 3.25 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 15 run - Good to Soft
Plumpton tends to run softer than advertised and I'm taking a view it will be closer to Soft by start time here.
A competitive race and some may need the run, some won't ideally have wanted "soft" in the going description and there are a handful whose best form is actually here and in these Autumn type of races.
At the top end of the market Royal Deeside has yet to fulfil potential for Alan King but should be stronger this winter although he may need the run and therefore the price looks on the tight side. Saligo Bay has to carry top weight and is a much better performer on top of the ground. Sami Bear will find this trip on the short side but if they go off too fast could make up a lot of ground in the closing stages and is not lightly discounted. Rain would also be a negative for Ez Tiger and these four are clearly very dangerous but not unbeatable by any means.
Worth a mention too are the likes of Birdman Bob, a Course and Distance winner who won fresh here last season, might just find this opening mark a bit too high today, Invictus De Brion has shown promise over hurdles and fences but a fall over fenced last time suggests this might be a confidence booster rather than an obvious win opportunity, Kalif D'Airy is one i'm adding to the TRACKER from today as the mark looks a bit high at the moment but clearly a horse who can be winning soon, hopefully not today though.
At the big price end of the market both KIng Otis and Mi Sueno would be speculative pokes but both have Course and Distance form so not as lightly discounted as the prices would suggest.
My top 3 rated though on the day are EMBOLDEN, a Course winner over a furlong further, a quiet prep run should have him spot on, blinkers will definitely help I think to just sharpen him up and James Bowen is always an asset in this type of race, I like him a lot here. GEARINGS POINT is fit from the Flat, connections are always to be feared here, particularly jockey Marc Goldstein (see the Tracker notes) and if he can ride his normally tactically astute race, don't be surprised to see this one grafting away on the far rail on the run to the last fence. If you want to play the enhanced places on offer, my 3rd rated is KILCUMIN who has had 3 runs so should be spot on now for a big effort and plenty of promise to suggest an upturn in results is near. (Robin)
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TRACKERS
Bath 5.15 Galactic Glow
Wolverhampton 5.25 Dappled Light
Gowran Park 5.35 Teed Up / Secret Rock
Marc Goldstein in Sussex....- always worth a close look especially on horses over 16-20/1 here-:
Plumpton 1.55 Smith
Plumpton 2.25 Birthday Angel
Plumpton 3.25 Gearings Point (see above)