Monday 20th May
By SP2A Analysis
NEWTON ABBOT 3.43 Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 2 miles 5 furlongs- 11 run - Good to Soft (Good and drying in most places)
Begin The Luck has had a run and should be winning races later in the summer but the mark and Class here looks a bit tough. Time to Bite will almost certainly lead them all a merry dance for a long way and looks a; T/Cast and solid each way punt but there are two rivals I see in a better light. The favourite Duke Of Lockley looks very solid with the only slight niggle that it's used to single figure fields and more tactical races. DOL would be a solid win saver at 4/1 if you want one.
The one with the most Chase experience though, proven at the Course and over the trip is the Phillip Hobbs trained MIDNIGHT MIDGE. Don't let top weight put you off this one, it's finally running off a competitive mark, has won off nearly a stone more and is race fit. (DT)
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WINDSOR 7.40 Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile 3 and 1/2 furlongs - Good to Firm - 15 run
The likes of Just An Hour , Warhol, Croeso Cymraeg and Rockit Tommy could all run well here and were certainly given due consideration. Incremental is a strong market favourite but not as yet proven of turf and I just feel there are 4 with stronger claims.
On another day I'd have tipped Saligo Bay @ 12/1 ; a Course and Distance winner who won a Division of this race last year and who is NH fit and handles the ground. He just missed out in the top 3 ratings to third best rated CARP KID @ 11/1 whose yard is in good form and who made a promising seasonal debut and who looks well worth the step up in trip on Good to Firm Going.
My top 2 rated though in preference order are the very consistent LEXINGTON KNIGHT a Course winner over shorter, a Distance winner elsewhere and looks ready to roll and ENTHUSED who drops slightly in Grade and who was unlucky in running ic a Class 3 at AScot last time and looks very well in himself right now. Play the top 2 and with there being few enhanced place options elsewhere today, you know who the third rated is if you want to go a bit deeper. I'd be disappointed if the four flagged up weren't in the first 3 home. Take early value on these if you can as I can see the market tightening closer to race time. (TA)
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