Monday 17th June
By SP2A Analysis
Gowran Park 5.05 - Handicap - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 15 run - Good
This is a tough trip here as they start at the bottom of the hill which means they have to climb it twice (imagine starting at Swinley Bottom at Ascot and still having to do a full circuit when you go past the finish post first time), so proven stamina is an asset.
The top 3 in the market looks vulnerable, Sceptred Isle was a 28/1 tip win for us last time out but is clobbered 11lbs by the handicapper. Both Sinking and Walnut Beach have solid claims but were ultimately 4th and 5th rated in the overall analysis. One other to note is the outsider Navajo River, who did win once at 200/1 and from a Yard who put the skull in to skullduggery (Seans words)...
My top 2 clear rated here are WAR THUNDER a winner at Sligo off 47, some issues last time but Colin Keane is up and they go for a tongue tie, a repeat of that Sligo run would make it a solid each way punt again here. LILAC LADY has run through the line a few times at 12 furlongs and the Course here does not put me off as the run style suggests they can switch off up the hill first time and conserve energy for a final kick. There is one very unexposed one here and that is 2 VIDISHA @ 33/1 for Johnny Murtagh, a 13 furlong winner in France who just found 2 miles too far on Irish debut, the drop in trip on a tough track looks very logical and if it settles a bit better could be a nice import and looks a nice prospect, 3rd rated IF you want to play 3 here to enhanced places.
(Sean)
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Kilbeggan - 3 mile and 1/2 furlong Handicap Hurdle - Good (2 Divisions)
5.45-
It's hard to split the obvious favourites The Lucky Lobster and Navy Waves, who will be hard to beat and with both around 4/1 I will have a reverse forecast as I really cannot split them!
Tramps Like Us may prefer some softer ground, Father Jed is very much in form at 13 years of age but may be better over fences these days, Safron Et Bleu ran with some promise last time and may figure and Tuff Days is a very tough horse who tends to run 5-6 days in 6-7 weeks and then vanish, a run off a 2 day break may not stop another bold run. One to note if running is 2nd RESERVE - RANGER BILLY who won this corresponding race last year so worth a small late each way if running.
If we take the form of The Lucky Lobster and Navy Waves at face value then THE value each way bet here is MAYVILLA LASS who has recent collateral form with both and who ran prominently over Course and Distance last time and who with that run boosting fitness looks well handicapped to go very close to them here and the price is obviously far more appealing.
6.15-
Kilashee a Chase winner for us on last run over fences at 11/1 is a danger but better over the bigger obstacles so I'm happy to swerve here. Cloughroe may struggle at this extended trip stamina wise, Land Jet is 3rd reserve but would be worth a small bet IF running. I am adding ROCCORIONACH in to the TRACKER from today so NOT a tip here but one who has had training issues but still only 7 years old and plenty of promise in 2021 and 2022, hopefully it can have an injury free summer.
SILVERFORT LADY is in the TRACKER after a promising run last time falling when in contention and a repeat of that promise and a clear round should take it very close here and the same applies to WELIKETOPARTY, also a faller whon prominent and in contention late on last time out and one who looks sure to go on to win races too. If there is a scopey promising one hidden on form it might be Noriska De La Mare who showed improved form last time. If Ranger Billy doesn't run in the First Division of the race and we only go with Mayvilla Lass, I#d suggest playing the saved stake on NORISKA DE LA MARE @ 10/1 as this is a more competitive race I feel with more market value.
(MG)