Monday 13th May
By SP2A Analysis
HEREFORD 3.35 - Mares Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 furlongs - 11 run - Good (possibly significant rain from lunchtime)
There are some solid ones at the top of this market and some unconvincing ones in the mid market but a couple at bigger odds who really catch our eyes.
Brianna Rose a Course and Distance winner up 3lbs is the one they have to beat and IF you want a small win saver then we'd not put you off but the pair we are putting up would be more confident tips to not only place but to win. Annie Wicks also won last time out but is upped 4 furlongs in trip against some proven stayers. Ma Belle Noir on the other hand makes her Chase debut off a 6 month break. The likes of Dicoy Rielly, Gatbazoutofhere and I Am Gonna Be are unlikely winners.
We're really keen though on a couple of Mares who may seem out of form but who have good form previously at this time of year, over Course and Distance and who due to recent form have come down to very competitive handicap marks and neither would be adversely affected by the rain that may appear a few hours before the race.
SCIROCCOS DREAM is a Course and Distance winner in November and is back to its last winning mark of 108 and DO YOU THINK is also a November Course and Distance winner, is also a May winner and there are distinct 6 month positive cycles in these Mares and is off a mark of 100 with a 7lbs Claim. These Mares have met before and are closely rated on correlated form. We'll be disappointed if both don't significantly outrun Odds. (DT)
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CATTERICK 4.17 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 12 run - Good - dry
At the top of the market we have worthy if unspectacular favourites in Twoforthegutter who may find this trip a bit on the sharp side on Good ground and Stellarmasterpiece, a Polish import who was placed on UK debut in a weak race. My knowledge of horse racing in Poland is zilch but the form may be a little suspect.
Jamih is a Course and Distance winner that I seriously considered but is very moderate and may need a few runs.
FOURSOME has placed efforts in low grade races and has had a run and one of the more likely, if you want a second tip in an 12 runner race or a reserve this is the clear one.
My confidence though lies with LEDNIKOV a runner up on Good to Soft turf at Hamilton is a stand out turf run and despite some moderate AW form it soes look like a decent and competitive handicap mark of 52 in a very moderate race that something has to win (North)
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KILLARNEY 6.10 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 15 run - Good the Yielding (rain)
A competitive race where a case can be made for and against a lot of them
We have a very tight top end of the market but I would be strongly suggesting that if you want a win bet on anything its PARK OF KINGS who has run well and one one occasion very unlucky in some top class big field Hurdles races around the middle of last NH season. I think its a better horse than Pitwood Road or Sea music and also preferable to Miss Tempo about who I have stamina doubts, The Other Mozzie who is my 4th best rated overall, Garybello, Uhtred, Idol and Jazzy Matty, who would b=demolish these on Boodles Cheltenham 2023 form but who has become a very frustrating type. Ceroc will be winning races this summer , but I'd suggest not here, more likely at Wexford or Cork and Ballywilliam Boy has yet to recapture form off a 2 year injury break but one I haven't given up totally on, so will TRACK.
My main two each way tips though are OPTIONAL MIX and ALDO THE APACHE. Both really caught my eye as they are returning to Hurdles after struggling over fences a little but back to very good Hurdle marks on form a few years ago. IF they can refind that Hurdles form they are very well in here and tick all the ground and stamina boxes. (Sean)
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