Monday 12th August
By SP2A Analysis
Ballinrobe 8.23 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 furlongs - Good - 16 run - (3 reserves)
They are using the relatively new Outer loop here tonight and it's a much nicer test I think than the old inner track. It's still very much a downhill run to the line but offers scope for a longer striding horse than the very tight inner track.
At the top end of the market one stands out, Bigira is upped 6lbs for a Wexford win and Rising Dust may be handicapped out of contention now, Safran Et Bleu is in good nick with form figures of 1-6-1 and wins off 89 and 95, but was all out to win off 95 last time so a 6lbs rise may also be a bit too much for this one to go in again.
The obvious one at the top end of the market is MY FRIEND THE WIND who is admirably consistent, has a Course win at 2 miles 6 furlongs off a mark of 92, has placed form at this trip off 97, 99 and 100 and looks the most solid of the top of the market off a mark of 102 with a 7lbs claim.
Brogue Man River, who may need the run and Il Silenzio who has shown glimmers of promise are a pair I will add to my TRACKER and watch with interest tonight, both may just need some Autumn rain or dew to soften the ground. I would fear first reserve Ballagh Star IF it gets a run but he is another who may just need some help from the skies to be seen to best effect. Coastal World was an eye-catching 80/1 runner up last time, that came completely out of the blue and therefore the form has to be taken with a degree of caution.
My 2nd rated and a confident second best is DOYEN FLYER who has shown promise at this trip a couple of times off marks of 93 and 94, was dropped in trip when disappointing last time out, bt back at what I think is optimum trip has no excuses here and I'm hopeful of a place at least.
I can't really split my 3rd and 4th rated at much bigger odds, so I'll be naughty and suggest you either split the take on them OR just take the marginal third rated of the pair, in preference order I think that TRUE DESTINY who is a 3 mile Handicap Hurdle winner off a mark of 1010 and who has been running at various trips since, mostly way too short, may just have been waiting to get the mark down and for what might be a golden opportunity back up to its correct trip here off an eye catching mark of 94. The other one is ITS TIME AGAIN who has some good Course and Distance form with wins up to a mark of 98 and another whose mark has dropped but who could easily revive here off a mark of 91 with a 5lbs claimer book (Sean)
------