Friday 6th September
By SP2A Analysis
Haydock 1.25 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Soft
The top pair of Minstrel Knight and Papagel dominate the market but don't really entice me in and whilst the veteran Croeso Cymraeg is a danger at this level, there are two others that I represent greater value and potential to take this.
At either end of the age and experience scale we have ELEMENTAL EYE who looks the most likely of the 3 year olds to me, staying on strongly over 10 furlongs on a couple of occasions, didn't quite get home on sole attempt at 12 furlongs, so this slip drop back in trip looks a strong move. At 9 years of age Furzig can give them nearly all a few years but has remained in solid form and drops back from a couple of runs in Class 3 in to calmer waters off a dangerous mark and Good to Soft is ideal ground (RJ)
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Haydock 3.45 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Soft
We have 3 dominating the market in this one and as before I/we think they are opposable. Frankelian and Knight Templar are unexposed 3 year olds upped in trip, and Billy no Mates whilst having 3 x Course and Distance wins to his credit, looks regressive this season.
I narrowed my final group down to 3 and clear top rated is ANIMATO for O'Meara, a winner twice in the Spring, a return to this Going and an ease in handicap mark should be just the spark he needs to run a big race here and I'll be frankly disappointed if he doesn't win this against the younger generation. GIFTED ANGEL for Tom Dascombe, who knows how to win races here from his days as Contract Trainer to Michael Owen just down the road, and the handicapper has given this one every chance and he is just preferred to Harrar (who can be an excellent reserve if we get a non runner) who has been freshened up, ideal conditions and one to follow forwards. (North)
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Down Royal 6.05 - Handicap - 2 miles 2 and 1/2 furlongs (Flat) - 13 run - Good
I think that Happy Jacky may get run off its feet here and will need every yard and Leading Lion for Elliott frankly could be anything on the Flat and as a result of those near the top of the market I think ZOFFAINEN who drops in grade and who is proven at the trip is the one to beat.
Sceptered Isle won for us at 28/1 earlier in the season and has gone in again since, certainly not one to discount lightly but a further increase to a mark of 67 having won for us off 51 and again off 61 asks a further question. He is though my 3rd best rated so a reserve IF needed due to a non runner. Rain is a proven stayer but ran yesterday, so BARNACULLA is my second rated , 5th in this race last year when favourite, will go off close to double figure odds here and in a field of doubtful stayers looks nailed on for a finish in the first 4. (MG)
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Kilbeggan 5.40 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 16 run (3 reserves) Yielding to Soft
I'll start with first reserve HE FITZ IN who has had a 3 month break but who can run well fresh and who does run OK here, IF he runs I've left a space for an each way bet.
The top 6 or 7 are very compactly positioned at the top of the market and of those 6-7 my clear top rated is HILL ROCKET who looks to be in good form and looking the most likely winner.
There are real question marks about so many of these at this trip and with the exception of HE FITZ IN and HILL ROCKET many pose too many questions.
That left me with 2 at big prices who tend to run their best races elsewhere, Thedancingfarrier is best at Cork but 66/1 plus is worth £1 e/w of anybody's money in this field and I would suggest a small e/w punt too on FATHER JED who can pop up anywhere from time to time, has no trip nor Going nor fitness issues but who to date hasn't rated this as one of his better tracks, but again, he ticks far more boxes than most. (Sean)
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