Friday 31st January
By SP2A Analysis
Lingfield 2.45 - Surrey National - class 3 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 5 furlongs - 12 run - Soft > Heavy
This is going to be a genuine slog and as such a few of the more fancied by the market whose form so far is best up to 3 miles ot 3 miles 2 furlongs may be struggling towards the end of the race. Getting into and maintaining a good rhythm will be key.
Here Comes McCoy is the favourite for the in-form Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen combo but its wins are all up to 3 miles 2 furlongs and this is uncharted territory off a high handicap mark.
I'm really focussed on 4 of the 12 runners though and Foxboro at 20/1 + is a dour stayer who is back below a win mark of 119 and runs off a very interesting mark of 115 with a 3lbs Claim. He was my 4th best rated in final analysis. Next best are two 13 year olds but neither are heavily raced, Saint Xavier is upped 7lbs for winning at Haydock last time and still likely to beat competitively weighted. He beat THE TWO AMIGOS there, THE TWO AMIGOS was having its second run back from a 627 day injury break, he won the 2022 Welsh National before getting injured in the Midlands National in Spring 2023. He certainly looked a lot sharper last time as if the old ability remained and at prices around 12/1 would be incredible value even if at only 90% of that past form.
My top rated is MAJOR DUNDEE a winner of a big National too, the 2023 Midlands National off a mark of 129, he was going well in the Eider Chase over an extended 4 miles at Newcastle last Spring before unseating in the closing stages and having had a run he looks primed here off a mark of 130. (The Advisor)
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LIngfield 3.48 - Handicap Chase Class 5 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 12 run - Soft > Heavy
Bobbi's Beauty is a short priced favourite on merit and if you want a win saver at 2/1 or lower then feel free.
The better value may lie elsewhere although I'm not sure a price of 4/1 is it with River Run Free on Chase debut. El Bandido Pancho is another who is unexposed and could be anything and goes Chasing after just 5 runs.
My 3rd best rated is Watchoutitscookie who is a winner at up to 3 miles and has form too at this trip, my main niggle would be if the ground turned out to be dead deep and heavy. CHOSEN HERO and JOE COTTON are both in the TRACKER.
CHOSEN HERO is my 2nd best rated here and although looking out of form her last 2 runs have coincidentally or not been in the month of January, in new and interesting hands she should be fine in the ground and at the trip. JOE COTTON though looks a very solid each way punt, very consistent, deserves a win and with a win in heavy ground and regular places off this mark really deserves to win a race (Robin)