Friday 30th August
By SP2A Analysis
Down Royal 7.00 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 20 run - Good
One of the best racetracks in Ireland and still very underrated in my opinion and after Navan and Naas possibly one of the most challenging in terms of stamina.
Good Going but a forecast of a still misty / foggy day, so plenty of dew that should ensure that there is no jar in the ground and that it's going to ride just on the soft side of Good.
At the top end of the market, I'm content to take on Mister Vic, Jimils Cave, Bigura and Bayonetta on the probability that this Course and the stamina angle at the trip won't ideally suit them and a couple run with penalties too. Western Model was very impressive at Punchestown when winning off a mark of 90 but so far a mark over 100 has just been a notch or two too high.
The first and third reserves, Delias Pet and Heart Of Rome would warrant a close look if getting a run and I have added Delias Pet, together with the bigger priced Down Around (plenty of promise in 2023 as yet not shown in 2024) and Hestheboycandoit (fist sign of promise upped in trip last time and of interest going forwards) to the TRACK from after this race. Of the others at big prices, I would be wary of Mustameet Secret who regularly runs races with a few days break and who would not be the biggest surprise if nicking an enhanced place.
I'm very happy though to go with a top 3 rated here with good confidence of bold runs into a place at least from all of them.
RESERVE JUDGEMENT is the one who has no chinks or excuses here and it will be frankly disappointing if he's not winning this or at least placing as a proven course and Distance winner in decent form recently. DINOLAND is generally progressive, needs good ground and as the Autumn officially kicks in from Sunday, there won't be many more chances of genuinely Good Going for him to exploit. BALLYDANGAN has shown plenty of promise, he may ideally want a bit more cut in the ground but it should be OK for him to put his best foot forwards and to run a place at least too at nice odds above 20/1. (Sean)
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Wexford 7.25 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 furlong - 16 run - Yielding
At the top end of the market Calahill is up in trip and gets a 7lbs penalty, Walkonthebriteside makes Chase debut off a 6lbs penalty for a Hurdle win last time, Inchidaly Copper is also carrying a significant 9lbs penalty and also back up in trip and probably the hardest of the market leaders to leave out is Three by Two, a winner in the mist here last time who also gets a 6lbs penalty. I would hope and anticipate there are better handicapped horses now, ready and able to take advantage.
A quick mention of the usually consistent Glenmalure Lodge, a standing dish in this type of race but who may still need the run after a well deserved summer break and at big odds my 5th rated Stormy Master who should outrun early 40/1 odds and who on another day would have warranted a small investment. He just missed out on a top 4 rating and the 4th rated (which you may or may not wish to have a small punt on to enhanced places is 16 AGIRLCALLEDCHLOE @ 16/1 who showed significant promise here on its penultimate run and as a 7 year old still has time and scope and who is well worth a small each way investment .
My top 3 rated though are BEARWITHMENOW who has some very strong Course and Distance form over Hurdles and Fences and one who really should be looking to win or place at least against those with new penalties and upped in trip at the top end of the market. ARDAGH'S CHOICE is in the TRACKER and deserves another shot, there was a valid reason for a strange run last time when it set out to make all, suddenly slowed in mid race, but then got an apparent second wind and finished strongly. It transpired the horse nearly ran out down a "chute" on the track. If he runs a similar type of race here and avoids that sort of glitch he could run them ragged. Finally, TUFF DAYS who fell when prominent on his last Course and Distance run over fences but whose overall form is positive and the booking of an inform Claimer just got him the nod over AGIRLCALLEDCHLOE. (MG)
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