Friday 24th May
By SP2A Analysis
GOODWOOD 2.25 - Handicap- Class 3 - 2 miles - 10 run - Good to Soft
The likes of Temporize and Vino Vitrix will be winning decent races later in the season no doubt possibly over further than this and both should need the run on past evidence. There is likely to be a genuine pace on here to test stamina and both Hawaila and Manxman have claims on recent form, this though may be a tougher race than they encountered last time and I also feel the same about Maxiden.
The one I really think that is both fit enough to run to its handicap mark and to benefit from the likely strong pace and at a nice e/w price is YORKINDNESS, I think the Chester race it ran in last time is a better quality than the 3 market leaders ran in, the horse is an out and out stayer who may lack a gear but the Johnson yard have an uncanny knack of finding Goodwood specialists and I think this one will run up with the pace and simply keep finding and keep grinding and win from the front end.
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BATH 5.30 - Handicap- Class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Good to Soft
Flame of Kodiac was a 66/1 winner last time at Chepstow and is upped in trip, Blue Hero may be a bigger danger as a Course and Distance winner of this race off a mark of 53 last year and a similar route back here as last year on second seasonal run. Galactic Flow is a 3 x Course and Distance winner, so another dangerous one but he ran on Monday and would certainly be better on firmer ground. Jimmy Mark is a two time Course and Distance winner off lowly marks but is another who would ideally want to hear his feet rattling on firmer turf. Sisterandbrother is one i'm adding to the TRACKER a Course and Distance winner in 2022, in a new environment and one to follow. If there is any horse today that might be worth a small each way side stake at big odds its UTHER PENDRAGON @ 18/1 who is a Course and Distance d=specialist who is race fit, who can handle the conditions and who is very capable of popping up in to a place here at big odds.
My top 2 rated though specifically in the conditions are CITY ESCAPE who just needs to trap a bit sharper but who looks to be running in to form and fitness off a nice mark below its last winning mark and PINK LILY who will handle Good to Soft but who will appreciate a drier day and who just looks a solid and consistent horse who is due a deserved win.
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BATH 6.10 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile - 13 run - Good to Soft
At the top of the market I'm happy to oppose Lunario who was a winner last time out and gets a 3lbs penalty but who finished last on its sole Course start at this quirky Course. Racing Demon who gets a 5lbs penalty may also be vulnerable on a Course it has also struggled at on occasions. Havana Goldrush looks to be at a ceiling in terms of handicap mark. Rival is a fast starter who will no doubt try to make all but if not totally slipping the field may be vulnerable to a closer.
There is one at a big price who could also be a dark horse and a pace angle and that's DYNAMITE KATE @ 25/1 , if you go back and grab a look at a 7 furlong all the way win on the AW at Dundalk for Nicola Lupini and then look at the mile form in the horses pedigree, a bold run may not be the biggest surprise and personally I will have a small side bet.
My clear top two rated though in the 13 runner field are EYE OF THE WATER who is something of a Course and Distance specialist, back well below its last winning mark of 62 and place mark of 66 and who looks very well handicapped off a mark of 58 and GERT LUSH who has winning marks in the low 60's has had a run already and who could now do some damaged off a mark of 65.
(All above Tips are TA)
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PONTEFRACT 6.15 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile - 12 run - Good
There are 3 in here who following analysis I want to TRACK forwards for varying reasons, King Sharja for Ruth Carr just needs to find a reasonable handicap mark and can win when it does, MY HONEY B may just need another run and will almost certainly be more effective in Class 6 than this Class 5 but a nice type who will be winning races again this season and MILLION THANKS who is another who just needs to find the right level to become a nice "stock horse" and who should improve too after its first run in 168 days.
At the top end of the market I'm happy to take on softer ground specialist Do I Dream and Running Star who may need the run and has his first encounter with grass here. Harswell Duke should be winning this after some good solid placed runs but gets a penalty for not winning and I prefer stable mate GLOBAL SPIRIT at around double the odds of Harswell, GLOBAL SPIRIT is a Course specialist finishing first and second on last two visits here and with those being in Class 4 and Class 5 races off marks of 65 and 70, despite being a veteran now a mark of 61 is VERY appealing.
Hostelry was my third best rated and won for me at 9/1 on seasonal debut at Thirsk in April but looks too high in the handicap now and may need to sit and wait for some assistance, so that means that DISTINCTION who ran very well at Beverley last time and who looks to hold strong place chances again, get the nod.
(North)