Friday 22nd November
By SP2A Analysis
Chepstow 2.50 Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 14 run - Soft > Heavy
Plenty of these may need the run and their second wind and quite a few are as yet unproven at this trip on what may become increasingly attritional ground.
One to TRACK forwards at a bigger price is Bobmahley who returns off a 614 day break, this one showed real winning promise before a fall here in March last year but if regaining past potential could be winning races in due course. Nothing else really tickles my fancy outside of a short shortlist of three.
Coleenymore and ECEPARTI head the market , I really fear Colleenymore who has had a run and has a 3 mile heavy ground win at right handed Exeter but ECEPARTI really does stand out here on seasonal debut. A Course and Distance winner, a winner on seasonal debut last year off winning marks of 97 and 104, best fresh on past evidence and it's the time you'd normally see Venetia Williams starting to fire up her bus, 105 with a good 5lbs claimer up really jumps off the page.
IF there is one at bigger odds that I would think is better each way value than Colleenymore it's MORTENS LEAM a 12 year old now but interesting on several bits of not too distant form, race fit, and I think just the type to be plugging on, however distant, in to a third or enhanced 4th place at likely double figure odds. (RJ)
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Chepstow 3.25 Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 2 miles 3 and a 1/2 furlongs - 18 run - Soft
At the top end of the market we have Loverdose, on a hat trick and off a 6lbs penalty upped in trip and despite Cobden being up 5/2 looks just too skinny. Hidden History on handicap debut after plenty of promising runs in Novices may just need the run, King Of Tara for Jonjo who steps up from 2 miles is the one I fear most of the non selections and both Captains Road and Boyles Hill have been added to the TRACKER this morning in anticipation of needing this race but probable future winners to follow. Maximum Effort has one decent run over this Course that warrants a mention, Imperial Storm who is already in the TRACKER may need this run too, but in the final analysis I was left with a shortlist of 4, I'll put up 3 of them and note the 4th for your information.
HOLLY HARTINGO won over Course and Distance last time and is still well handicapped on past evidence off a 5lbs penalty, I can't find any reason not to back it and am surprised the price isn't yet shorter. SIREKOFF has a win at the trip and showed promise for Shark Hanlon, now with the Pipe yard and having had a recent run, I'll be disappointed if this one isn't placing at least and winning soon for a resurgent team.
Of the other pair, the Pipe second string KEPPAGE was my 4th top rated, it won off marks of 112 and 118 in 2023 but has been in the doldrums since, as were the Yard through a lot of last season, they go for first time Blinkers on the back of a few poor runs and IF they revive the horse he could be very interesting off a mark of 109. He just missed out though tp SAMBEZI who has had 2 runs to get fully fit, is off a very nice mark now and has some decent runs on soft in the past. Both need to rediscover their spark, but of the pair, this one narrowly gets a certain investment from me today (Robin)