Friday 21st June - Royal Ascot DAY 4
By SP2A Analysis
4.25 - Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 19 run - Good to Firm
I think that ETHICAL DIAMOND is genuinely the one they all have to beat here and in terms of value 5/2 or better would be a cracking price. I will suggest therefore that you take that option.
A few of the others have solid place claims and I'm most keen on, and confident that ;the Johnny Murtagh trained SAFECRACKER who has some decent good to Firm form that most of these don't have, has excellent place claims.
Marhaba The Champ for Kevin Ryan and EPIC POET for David O'Meara came next in my place Ratings and I would just give the nod to the very well handicapped O'Meara horse for the 3rd place investment. (North)
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5.05 - Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) 3 year old Fillies - 1 mile - 30 run
The negative low draw bias could rule out Forever Blue who would have been a cast iron tip if she'd been drawn in double figures or higher. I fear her massively and if the draw bias has eased and low drawn have done better earlier in the day, then PLEASE consider a small extra investment in this one on the hoof so to speak. Indeniable is another one (stall 4) whose only negative would be that draw issue, but not as confidently fancied as Forever Blue.
Of those at bigger Odds, I looked at D Flawless, Viennoise and Marcella quite long and hard but ended with 3 very highly rated and a fourth who has more of a "gut feel".
ARISAIG is drawn in Stall 12 and could get a lovely tow here and would have scope too to go far side if things have changed draw wise. I think the straight mile and pace and hustle of the race is ideal for this Johnston trained horse and there remains no finer exponent on the straight Course here on the right horse than Jamie Spencer. CAT NINJA drawn is Stall 29 would be a slightly surprising winner but with excellent connections and an improving profile she could get a lovely run on the Stands side and be delivered late on. SOPRANO for the Boughey team is another who could get a lovely run with some cover from Stall 18 looks to me to have been aimed at this race. The fourth rated is the Aiden O'Brien trained FLIGHT OF FANCY, the form is solid if not spectacular and she is more exposed than some here, but from an ideal berth we think in Stall 23, here experience and tenacity should deliver a place at least and you won't get many from that Yard in a handicap going off at 20/1 (TA)
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6.15 - Palace of Holyrood House Handicap - Class 2 - 3 year old - 5 furlongs - 28 run
This will be an absolute burn up and the winner will need luck in running. It doesn't look anything like as deep a race as most of the other handicaps this week.
The likes of Got To Love A Grey for Karl Burke and Dark Vintage for Richard Fahey were strongly considered but on the basis that most of that was due to the Trainers and their prowess than their actual form they were reluctantly discarded at the final weeding out stage. I have 4 top rated to invest in and a pair who were 5th and 6th preferences who should be considered reserves if we have a non runner. They would be Matters Most for Ralf Beckett and Rossa Ryan, this one would have been a tip but for Stall 6 being possibly a negative berth and Mukaafah drawn in Stall 9, who may be the least exposed highest possible ceiling dark horse in the field.
My top rated though are VANTHEMAN drawn in Stall 14 for Kevin Ryan, always a yard to fear in the 3 year old races here and plenty to suggest this one is just reaching peak form, BILLY WEBSTER drawn 20 for George Scott is another that strikes me as one who is really progressing now and who may be a bit ahead of the handicapper, SOMMELIER for Marco Botti gets a lovely draw in Stall 27 and is possibly in a little less deeper here and strongly fancied and finally TWO TRIBES drawn in Stall 22 and one who drops down to 5 furlongs, if this one breaks evenly and gets some nice cover and then a passage through in the closing stages, and it will need luck in running to do that, then if anything finishes with a wet sail it should be this one. (MG)
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