Friday 17th May
By SP2A Analysis
NEWBURY 2.30 Handicap - Class 3 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Good
A few have very solid claims here at decent prices and I think that Gallant Lion may be vulnerable off an inflated 2023 mark on a seasonal debut for Alan King. Cracksking has a win in Class 4 and was placed at the same level on seasonal debut and is a scopey type and one of several who could be an improver. I think that High Fibre; Hosanna Power and Glam De vega can be winning races at this sort of level this season but I'm not sure that any stand out today on seasonal debut so I will take the chance that all will improve for the run and may be vulnerable to a fitter horse at this early stage of the season.
I'm most keen, in these conditions; in SWEET REWARD who was runner up in this race last season, an in form Course specialist already in the winners enclosure this season and one who can continue in that vein at a nice e/w price. One who can and has won and runs well fresh is MUSTAZEED and the Course and Distance specialist who won this race in 2022 can run another big race. (TA)
----
YORK 2.45 Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 2 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Good
An interesting one in here in the context of this race and the earlier one at Newbury is QAASID , it;s interesting they come here instead of the Class2 at Newbury (The Advisor tip race today) and for those watching on ITV, if one of those who finished behind Qaasid last time was to impress and win at Newbury then a couple of quid on Betfair might be a logical move.
In the wider context here I think Reach may need the run and benefit from it, Botanical gets a hefty 10lbs rise for a win last year and may struggle to cope with it also on seasonal debut. Andaleep had a Course and Distance win last year and is AW fit but a mark above 90 just put me off in the final analysis and he ended up 5th best rated. Qitaal may just need a bit more juice in the ground but is another feared rival.
A pair to TRACK onwards from this race are Lord Protector and Kitsune Power, both Ruth Carr and Tim Easterby are particularly good at developing horses at 4 years old and older that come in from bigger operations in the Sales and whilst both could run a place here at best, I would genuinely think both can be winning races soon may be in a slightly lower Class than this Class 2.
I am most confident in 3 of the 16 runners and found it hard to split them.
MAJESTIC for Jack Channon has placed form in the race and looks race fit and primed off a mark of 91, LOYAL TOUCH was a runner up for us at Chester last week running with great credit and again I feel his prominent running style is ideally suited to this track and one on my radar when stepped up to this trip for a considerable time in ELIEAN DUBH from the very successful Karl Burke yard whose pedigree and running style at a mile suggests strongly that he may be better at this trip.
For those who like a sporting dabble to 5th place enhanced widely available; I would be disappointed in 10 Stressfree @ 16/1 for O'Meara and Hollie Doyle wasn't winning very soon and the return of cheekpieces today makes it a very serious threat who just missed out on a top 3 place. (North)
--------
LEOPARDSTOWN 7.40 Handicap 1 mile 4 furlongs - 22 run - Good
I could write a long piece about many of these but I want to take on Jawhary at this trip, Jazz Forever has stamina concerns too, Muhalel like others is a better AW horse, Rotolo too has stamina concerns. I looked closely at Neddies Boy who was unlucky in running last time, Enquire Within, who would have been a tip on soft or heavy Going but may find this ground a bit too fast for his liking and at bigger odds I would not totally discount My Birthday Girl or Clueless Hill at 66/1 who has placed form in this Apprentice rider race from 2022.
My clear top three though are CHARLIE DARLING who has a win at 14 furlongs and a place at 10 furlongs off this mark of 53 and who really should be a nailed on top 3 finisher here on those runs. SPECIAL PROTECTOR has some solid placed for in this sort of race and at this level and deserves a win and BIG CHALLENGE at a nice e/w price has shown a few glimmers of being ready to win a small race and was well supported in the market before fading late on over a longer trip last time.
If you want an enhanced plot punt on something at big odds (around 50/1) and from a well respected yard then look at 5 SLANEY TIDE @ 50/1 to 6th with B365 who has won a race and looks a type that if he gets in to a prominent position and allowed to bowl along can really surprise a few of these! (MG)