Friday 14th June
By SP2A Analysis
York 4.10 Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 2 and 1/2 furlongs - 17 run - Good to Soft (some showers)
The excellent Going updates here suggest the going may be no worse than Good to Soft and whilst this doesn't help around half a dozen of the top of the ground types who would not welcome the easing in conditions, i don't think it's likely to see a host of non runners.
I'm not overly keen on most of the top end of the market on the day and think that Arthur's Realm may struggle to handle a 6lbs penalty in a deeper race than the one it won recently at Redcar. A pair to TRACK forwards are Masakela, now with Tim Eastberby and one who may need to drop in to Class 3 or 4 to find a level but lets not forget this horse finished 4th in the 2022 Derby, so potential is clear. The other one who will come on for the run is SCAMPI who was progressive and consistent last season but may well need this off a 244 days break.
The hardest one to really get a handle on is 6 MACHETE @ 15/2 for David O'Meara, a French import with good credentials who was unlucky in running on UK debut and who could be "anything". I can't really analyse the form properly but personally will have a small side e/w wager as the horse clearly is highly regarded and could easily win this and go on to make a nice Class2 handicapper.
My top 2 analysed and on some very solid form lines are the Johnston pair KILLYBEGS WARRIOR and QITAAL. QITAAL is drawn wide but runs prominently and highly likely to get over and the take an early lead, IF it can take a breather in to and round the home turn it has the ability to lead them well in to the final furlong and I'd be looking for an enhanced place at least on that basis. Stablemate KILLYBEGS WARRIOR is likely to sit closely in behind Qitaal and try to be the first to strike for home at the 2 furlong pole and with this track usually suiting those up with the pace "first run" can be key, he's drawn in Stall 1 , so very little tactical energy to expend unless he traps slowly and I think the Yard will have a clear tactical plan here.
(North)
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FAIRYHOUSE 7.25 Handicap - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 18 run - Good
A lot of these have stamina to prove and not many in the lower half of the betting really look like possible winners. If there is one at a price who stands out it is 15 OUT ON FRIDAY @ 33/1, a front runner drawn in Stall 5 who will most likely lead them in and ensure a really strong pace, one that could slip a field and definitely worth a try at the trip as it has run through the line well at 12 furlongs. I'll be disappointed if this one isn't hanging on in the first 5-6 home IF they don't get too excited too soon off the front and well worth a small bet.
Sceptred Isle a 28/1 winner for us a fortnight ago is 2nd reserve but up 11lbs so best watched if getting a run, Make Good was my 4th rated overall and has some solid place credentials, Busselton drops back to Turf Flat really seeking confidence after losing its way badly in the NH game and on the basis of a Flat Turf place a few years back, may or may not be on a nice handicap mark on handicap debut, so a big run may be likely. I'm not sure 6/1 is great e/w value for Bold Approach but this one should be in the first 6 too with Make Good.
My clear top 3 rated though are SIXPACK for Johnny Murtagh who is the one I think they all have to beat here, a couple of wins off a mark of 69 finishing strongly at 12 furlongs, steps up in trip off a penalty and up to a mark of 75, but with loads of proven stamina on the dams side at this trip, I don't think there are any excuses. GLOBAL EXPORT won well on its penultimate run but got really messed up in a tactical dawdle last time out, I think with the aforementioned OUT ON FRIDAY leading them round this will be run far more to the benefit of GLOBAL EXPORT and I'll be very disappointed if it's not in the first 3 home here. Finally, an unexposed one who has really caught my eye is CHEMDAWG, an impressive Navan run last time staying on at this trip just really flagged up the stamina angle and off a fast pace that will be a big asset and this unexposed 5 year old seems to have plenty of scope. (MG)
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