Friday 11th October
By SP2A Analysis
York 1.30 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 16 run - Soft > Heavy
There are a large number to consider here on total form analysis but not that many are likely to be ideally suited to the heavy conditions and that's an angle we'll seek to exploit with some speculative punts.
On Good to Soft or better ground the likes of Blue For You, Hafeet Alain (who won this on soft last year but who may not appreciate the more holding ground), Padishakh (who is in the tracker and another who might prefer soft to holding) and La Trinidad (who may just be over the top for the season now) ; would have been very strong contenders but i'm content to swerve them here today.
Naxos who has a 2nd run off a 7 month break could be a danger as could the ex Irish trained Navagio in conditions that might suit. Zealot will love conditions, likes to get on with it and has stamina for further and was my 4th top rated but the niggle is he usually operates in lower Classes than Class 2. At a big price Box To Box caught my eye and together with Zealot may be the ones to lead them a long way into this race and he was 5th rated in my final analysis.
With 16 runners and enhanced places my top 3 rated though are as follows.
LOOK BACK SMILING is a perennial slow starter but has form over a mile on soft with the identified pace angles likely to try to make all but lacking gears, I anticipate that with luck in running this one could be flying home best with a wet sail and for once a tardy start may not be a handicap on ground that will absolutely play to its strengths.
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND remains very lightly raced and this is an easier assignment than last time at Newmarket, this one has the stamina to see out a straight mile in Soft so a turning mile should be no problem and off a declining mark that has fallen to 87 looks incredibly well handicapped if finally putting the proven ability on display.
THUNDER ROAR is a dour and consistent performer at this level, rarely far away and just the sort to battle on in what might be attritional conditions, definitely deserves a win
(Northern)
-----
Chepstow 5.30 Handicap Chase - Conditionals - Class 4 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run Soft
The fact that they are using the Flat tRack for the Hurdle races today just pushed me to look at this Handicap Chase instead and actually I think there may be some early season value in a couple of more exposed types who are race fit.
The likes of Rouge De L'Quest will be winning races soon I'm sure but needed a run last season and I think best TRACKED forwards. School Days Over is race fit but soft going is a negative for this one, Belgarum appears to be the one to beat but I've serious reservations about the Going, the trip and the handicap mark for this one today.
I'm really taken though by the chances of ROCKINASTORM who won fresh first time out last season and who looks a really nice 7 year old Chaser to follow and the more exposed PUDDLESINTHEPARK who brings race fitness and whose best Chase runs have been over this Course and trip and who looks each way value on the day at anything over 16/1
(Robin)
------