York 2.45

 

The first thing to say about "The Clipper" is to ignore the 7 furlong bit, it's a MILE race, a few yards short if you want to be pedantic but really need to look for proven 1 mile form as a specialist 7 furlong horse can find that final furlong a long way home.

 

It's NOT  a straight mile, they do come round a left hand bend but on Good or Softer higher drawn runners can come down the middle of the track and not always a disadvantage to be drawn high. As we saw yesterday though, pays to be handy and not too far off the pace here.

 

Let's start with the market leaders, TOP RANK form figures 1111 and SIR BUSKER who looked very unlucky at Glorious Goodwood. It's patently obvious both are very good horses and deserve the market places but I don't think either represent value in a race of this type and will leave alone in the knowledge that if they romp clear 1-2; I'll take it on the chin and still have a few places for the each way value to deliver a modicum of net profit.

 

David O'Meara runs 3 horses and PROMPTING looks the most obvious one with form figures of 111 but that's seen a rise in the handicap from 78 to 89 and now to 95 and I'm always happy to "stick" at some point with any horse on that kind of mark escalator rather than "twist" and play the card again. I'll come back to O'Meara shortly.

 

I'm taking a risk clearly by-passing those 3 and will also leave out Ouzzo who is 10lbs above last handicap win mark so I think vulnerable; Arigato who is probably best at 7 furlongs and on genuinely Good or faster Going; Montathham from the Haggas yard who is another on a rising mark 80 up to 102 and Qaysar 6th in this last year, and another whose handicap mark looks a shade too high to me.

 

So lets get down to the tips.

 

WHATS THE STORY won this is 2019. That was off a mark of 103, 3lbs more here does not look excessive and I like the wide draw in stall 18 as we know the horse can make relentless progress down the middle. The stable form is a niggle, no winner in the last 30 runners but a big priced runner up in the opener yesterday suggests not too much wrong with the better horses in a progressive yard.

 

David O'Mearas pair FIRMANENT who has an exceptional Course record over 7 furlongs and a mile and who very interestingly gets a 5lbs claimer to make the mark look very attractive and ORBAAN another CD winner off a mark of 100 who loves the Good to Soft going and does not look badly handicapped off 104 look to be much higher in the market than you'd suspect. Both bring a bit of proven form over the trip and course that I always think more important than "untapped potential" in a race of this type.