Worcester 3.30

 

An 11 runner Handicap Hurdle over just under 3 miles and a race I want to make some NET profit out of.

 

Two strong favourites, Dynamic Kate who won off 79 at Fontwell last time and who unseated here going very smoothly the time before off the same mark and managed to get in here off an unchanged mark. Sheila Nash wins off marks of 90 and 94 over Course and Distance and now off a mark of 101.

 

All logic is they fight out the finish a fair bit clear so I'll cover that probability with a small reverse forecast.  

 

Something though has to finish 3rd doesn't it? and if you bet with Sky or Coral currently you'll get Odds to 4th - I suggest Coral.

 

Of the remainder, Danzini is up 3lb for a Southwell win but no great shakes and 7/1 doesn't entice me, JESSICA RABBIT is upped in trip for a Yard that churn out winners and last time at this trip here it was a runner up off a mark of 88, runs off 94 and should be competitive for that 3rd place. Branson Missouri has changed Yard, upped in trip and possibly a danger.Happy Returns is the dark horse upped nearly a mile on handicap debut and a danger given connections.

 

TARAS DAY should be in contention for 3rd place too a Southwell winner and regular and I usually swerve form there anywhere else but better judged may be on a Pert win over 3 miles odd a mark of 82 and definite signs last time of running in to some form and 83 tempts me in.

 

I'll have shrapnel bets on JESSICA RABBIT and TARAS DAY expecting one to finish 3rd and the other 4th and to back up my reverse forecast.

 

There are a pair though a bigger Odds that look over priced.

 

CZECH HER OUT is a course and distance winner off a mark of 94, was poor here last time and is off top weight but there is very little depth in here and off a mark of 100it could nick a place. I also suggest that you add to your TRACKER system and indicate interest off any mark below 95 going forwards.

 

Most interesting to me at around 50/1 is DORETTE...well beaten on seasonal debut but will have benefitted from that run, it may still need this so TRACK onwards but it has very solid form at the trip off marks from 74 to 80 and runs off 75 here, if it strips fitter, gets a blow in and a second wind, it can run much closer to that mark and if it had  a few more runs under its belt wouldn't be 50/1.

 

I'll be having £1 e/w om DORETTE and possibly CZECH HER OUT in that order of preference IF I can still get odds to 4th off Joe Coral when the Shops open!