Windsor 7.30

Robin - Windsor 7.30 - Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - Heavy (dry)

 

The lack of any further rain may make these conditions even more testing as the mud turns thicker. The majority of horses that have qualified are "top of the ground" types with most Windsor Fixtures after the early weeks of their season having been raced on Good to Firm or Good Going. The draw bias here is tough to work out with a lack of soft/heavy Fixtures in 2023 apart from the early weeks, generally it favours extremes of high or low against a rail.

 

I narrowed the 15 down to a short list of 3, all of whom have proven form in soft / heavy ground and I think ability to handle it is more important than handicap marks, which it negates, and general quality, as a mud lover will find ways to battle in the mud whereas a superior horse who hates mud is more likely not to figure. Hopefully the logic plays out tonight.

 

At the top end of the market I'm happy to take on Haymaker despite it having some soft form, I think 10/3 is just too short to back to win with any confidence in the conditions. Knebworth is in form but with a penalty and still a young horse can also be taken on. Heroism is an unexposed 3 year old too but no experience on soft just yet.

 

The hardest to leave out is STERLING KNIGHT. Very disappointing run when tipped on Saturday from a decent draw in the Stewards Cup. It should have handled those conditions and it's hard to know how much the run has taken out of it. Had it arrived here and not run at Goodwood it would be a strong e/w tip. IF it runs here you might like to consider a small side e/w on that analysis alone. 

 

The three that I think standout though are CRAZY LUCK a filly proven in soft and heavy and whose form tends to peak late July / early August. She is inconsistent but off a nice mark and her past form really does suggest she has a cracking e/w chance here. INDIAN CREAK is a Course and Distance winner, (not to be confused with Indian Creek a stalwart of the same Yard) it has plenty of soft ground form and although penalised 4lbs for a nice win last time, that's negated by Rose Dawes a decent enough apprentice taking 5lbs off, so an in form winning horse without a penalty of preferred Going, hard not to like this one's chances. 

 

Finally, a small shrapnel bet is recommended on ANTIPHON at bigger odds and more speculative but it's got Course and Distance form, its best runs all have "soft" in the title and wins and places between 77 and 80 and runs off a mark of 77 with a 7lbs Claimer up and too well handicapped on preferred ground to ignore. 

 

TIPS (1) Crazy Luck ; (2) Indian Creak ; (3) Antiphon