Royal Ascot - WEdnesday 15th June

 

From what I saw yesterday there is no obvious draw bias, pace is important and the only thing we don't know as there weren't fields as big as this on the straight Course  yesterday is if there is any kind of "golden highway" up the Stand Rail drawn 30 + 25 plus. The ground drops away a bit there and in the past there has been a patch off the rai  for a few horse widths, we'll find out today. Similarly a few years back we tipped 50/1 winners of this and The Wokingham in the same week with highest and lowest possible draws, so you take your chance on the draw.

 

Logic suggests that on this type of ground that the best horses do come to the fore, a few old timers have squeaks but I think we're looking top end of the market and also at a few as yet unexposed types from bigger yards. Saturday MAY be different if the rain comes!

 

I narrowed my final choices into 4 groups being the hardest to look past, really like the look of, more speculative types and then the real outsiders.

 

The hardest to look past on form and in terms of the market are Astro kIng, Symbolise and DARK SHIFT. I just have a niggle Going wise about Symbolize and I just have a niggle about a pace angle around Astro King and the prices I just feel that the best of the three is DARK SHIFT. He's drawn in 15 and thats right at the middle of the arrowhead, he can go Stands, Middle of far from there is in form and really ticked every box. I'll use Astro KIng and Symbolise in the Placepot Perm as odds suggest at least one will finish in the first 4.

 

In my next category came , FANTASTIC FOX, MAGICAL MORNING and Totally Charming. The more I looked at FANTASTIC FOX drawn in 21 the more I liked, he was genuinely unlucky last time out, has every tick in the right boxes and I think has a cracking chance. MAGICAL MORNING is somewhat unexposed, a very interesting jockey booking and drawn in 26 is I think on the right side of the draw, The Yard can ready one quietly and I'll be disappointed if this one isn't in the first 10 home. Totally Charming i rate as a big danger but i think the penalty might just scrub off its chances especially on the form line with FANTASTIC FOX.

 

My more speculative list is Greatgadian, ARATUS, Sinjaari and Via Serendipity. Again the more I looked at ARATUS the more i liked, its drawn 24 and has been very solid over 7 furlongs but has achieved all it can at that trip possibly . Its pedigree suggests that a mile is probably its best trip and I think that can eek out a few pounds of improvement . Its drawn high side so no concerns there and I think its very well priced. Greatgadian has good AW form that has often worked specifically on the Course, Sinjaari drops to a mile from further, gets the highest Stall in 33 and may need a lot of luck in running IF that's a prime slot but coming late off the pace there it could outrun Odds. I'll use that one in the "exchange bet" at the bottom of the mail. Via Serendipity is in form won on Saturday and would have a sporting chance.

 

In the outsiders list are Hortzador who could outrun silly odds, Tempus whose draw in 16 gives tactical versatility and Hollie D gets a good ride here, just slightly concerned though about the handicap mark above 100 and Desert Peace, who is drawn 6 and I though the most unexposed on that Far side and who frankly could be anything, he'll be in the "exchange bet" with Sinjaari.

 

So I'll stake on the following as advised.

 

TRACKERS - DARK SHIFT / FANTASTIC FOX / ARATUS - Shrapnel Magical Morning. (next rated if any n/r are Greatgadian + Tempus)

 

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In the final race on the Card at 6.10 I looked closely at Improvised and Technique but discarded them from my final selections.

 

I think that Don't Tell Claire could run a big race but will need some luck on the round course from Stall 16 in running, Ffion ran well in this race last year and is in form but 8lbs more than 2021 and Dubai Love looks very interesting but for the Stall 23, is got good Course form though and warrants an "exchange bet" later on.

 

My preferred 3 are HAYZIA who brings good Irish form and a prime draw in 13, STATE OCCASION who also gets a low drawn has form at up to 10 furlongs and who could outstay all of these up the straight off a frenetic pace and SERENADING who may need luck in running with its hold up style but does have something of "big unexposed beast" about him physically and I still think we've to see everything fully click with this one.