Plumpton - Wednesday 21st October

 

My assessment is that both races will be run on SOFT Going. Every forecast indicates heavy rain, so hopefully the first hurdle we overcome will be the weather one. 

 

This is a tricky Handicap Chase but I think that Tizzards NEVER LEARN who has won at this trip, but who is a better 3 miler is just in the grip of the handicapper and will come on a fair bit for this run. JARLATH would be of far greater interest if the rains stayed away, has placed though on heavy Going so a big danger just overlooked. NATIVE ROBIN is a Course and Distance winner, likes it soft, has placed off a longer break but the 221 days off just puts me off. UALLRIGHTHARRY was a seasonal debut winner in 2019 and is a horse to keep an eye on, but I just fancy one a little bit more and unless it's cherry fit, could use the run today to get that way you'd think.

 

The one with least excuses is Gary Moores WAIKIKI WAVES. A Course and Distance winner, won 5 of 6 runs at one point and has win mark up to 112, struggled above that but back to 115 and with Joshua up and a run so fit, looks a solid each way poke. They also run Cheque Et Blanc, a wonderfully inconsistent 3 and a half mile Course winner, keep an eye on that one next time out over a more suitable trip.

 

 

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A similarly tight race but I narrowed it down to 4 I most like.

 

FIRST ASSEMBLY has good Course and Distance form and won't mind conditions but on balance the 219 days off just puts me off today.

 

HIER ENCORE is OK on Soft, has some good Course form, more at 2 miles 3 and a half furlongs than this trip, but can get this trip and if they do go a steady pace as the rains come would have a sporting each way chance. GOOD NEWS is another Course and Distance winner, won this last year off a mark of 90, won again off a mark of 95 with a 5 lbs Claimer up, gets in here off 100, with an excellent 3lbs Claimer, probably just needs a few more pounds off but a big danger

 

My idea of the strongest contender at a nice price though is THE PREMIER CELTIC whose best 2 runs have been here in soft conditions, both times off marks of 97. A run will have bought the horse on and  I can't find any reason nor excuse why it won't be very competitive again today, other than if the rain simply doesn't arrive. Running off 92 with a handy Claimer taking the mark below 90, it looks primed to run a big race.

TIP - THE PREMIER CELTIC / Tracker - Hier Encore (if either are non runners use Good News as a Tracker)