Friday 29th October

Wetherby 3.50 - Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 11 run Good (likely softer with some rain anticipated)

 

A nice field of horses who will win plenty of decent races this season.

 

Dangers abound with the likes of Eclair D'Ainay who may need the run here, Gakahad Quest who is progressive but digging his toe in seriously upped in quality here, Good Boy Boddy who does have an impressive record on seasonal debut or after a break but who looks very short to me at 9/4, Magic Saint for PFN who returns after a second wind operation with a niggle about the trip especially if it turns soft and not one they'd want to bottom out too soon and another who steps up in Class after an impressive run and win here last time in Whoshotthesheriff..

 

I was left though with a pair who I think representS the best market value and think The Big Bite who runs well fresh could go very close here but the eye catcher for me at a big each way price is ESPOIR DE TEILEE. 

 

ESPOIR DE TEILEE will surely come on for a quiet return a few weeks ago where it wasn't overly exerted when needing a blow a few furlongs from home. It has won on soft and Good to Soft going so won't mind the rain and fitness should be an advantage over most of these and I think a cracking each way opportunity at nice Odds.

 

Uttoxeter 3.23 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 12 run - Good / Good to Soft - I anticipate genuine Soft ground later on - possibly Heavy!

 

This is far lower standard than the Wetherby race and fewer therefore hold any attraction to me today.

 

Maasai Warrior has won on Good to Soft in the Spring off marks of 74 and 76 but probably needs respite from the Handicapper and better going than it's likely to be by mid afternoon. Craogh Patrick is one you may well want to track for later in the season, a 3 mile P2P winner who ran over an inadequate 2 miles first time up, upped to 2 and a half here and probably worth tracking on next 3 runs after today from an upwardly mobile operation.

 

My ideal of value in the race though is LIGHT FLICKER who definitely needed a seasonal debut run and will come on for it, on ground that would have been too firm as it never got into a rhythm. Whilst it may still need this it has won at the Course and  at the Distance, is versatile at this trip and up to 3 miles and best form is in soft Going. If they set a decent pace and it doesn't get detached and lose interest, which is less likely in rain softened ground, it can put a bit of fitness and assured stamina to good use and nick a place at least. Joly Maker is definitely the one to beat IF you want a win saver but such bets on Jonjo favourites have a less than attractive success percentage so I'll pass this time on that option.