Ffos Llas 3.45
By National Hunt UK (Robin T)
ROBIN - Ffos Llas 3.45 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 13 Run - Good (Good to Soft patches) - No rain forecast before racing ends.
There are a few question marks about the market leaders here, Farceur De Mauine was an impressive winner of a 2 mile 7 furlong Hurdle at Warwick in May but is upped 10lbs for that win and may just need the run. Camambert Electric won a small race at Newton Abbot at 2 miles and 2 furlongs and faces a significant step up in trip here, Norwegian Gate is an ex Flat horse also unproven at this trip and Sheila Nash, who was a game 12/1 winner for me at Worcester in July off a mark of 90, and who won again at short Odds after that runs off a mark of 102 and has always struck me as more of a summer ground jumper.
At the other end of the market and in the TRACKER is Ballymilan, this one has 2 styles of running and was very poor last time out, when it outs it all in it can be very dangerous and if it's 20/1 or more might be worth a £1 e/w bet just to cover off the fact it is well handicapped.
I was left really with 3 horses who really caught my eye.
LOVED OUT, ROBBIE DAZZLER and Castkitelio.
LOVED OUT comes from the Evan Williams yard and ridden by Adam Wedge, it's got a Course win at 2 miles 6 furlongs, runs off just 2lbs higher, visually it wasn't stopping that day and I cant see any reason why it won't be very competitive again here. ROBBIE DAZZLER is a bit more speculative, the Trainer is in form (Michael Scudamore) its shown glimmers of form and I've no concerns about the trip or the handicap mark and I actually think this more galloping track will suit it.
Castkitelio has won off a mark of 88 and placed off 89, it may have needed its last run and will be a real danger off a mark of 93. It was close between it and ROBBIE DAZZLER, so if Either selection was a non runner it would slot in nicely as a reserve. The remainder I feel will probably either need the run, won't get the trip or frankly, aren't good enough on the day.
TIP - Loved Out / Tracker - Robbie Dazzler (have small e/w on Ballymilan if you wish)