Chepstow Tuesday 28th June

 

The rain could be a factor here depending how early it starts and in what quantity.

 

We picked DIAMOND COTTAGE to win here last Monday when we also had the runner up. At today's Odds and with a 5lb penalty and with rain about its one I fear but nothing like the confidence I had in it indeed both selections last week. I do have similar quiet confidence in a few others though  tonight.

 

Our Man In Havana is in decent form and due a win but rain just puts me off and it may be better at horter trips. Astrophysics is another who might like better ground than expected as are Quarter Blue and especially Rhubarb, who but for rain would have been a tip and rates a big danger. Macon Belle and Altist T are unexposed 3 year olds neither of who have any experience of Good to Soft or softer.

 

That leaves me with 4 of real interest.

 

IF it turns soft or softer i would suggest having a small shrapnel bet on BAMA LAMA in the run up to the race once Going is confirmed as Soft or worse. It's got a bit of form and heavy rain would suit it more than anything else in the race. I also think a small shrapnel bet on John Spearings DANNY BLEU who drops to 6 furlongs off a declining mark IF it goes softer than Good.

 

My main two though are proven Course performers who might just be ready to click. The prices suggest and are because they are out of form but both have plenty of past form to suggest they have good each way chances in these conditions.

 

TAWAAFEQ is a 4 time Course and Distance winner, last winning last July over Course and Distance off a mark of 58. Its won on Good and Soft here and the mark tonight is 52 and in Stall 9 it should be able to run tactically to either rail or down the middle although they do tend to favour Stands side in the wet.

 

SECRET POTION off top weight needs rain and won off 56 and 60 last July, its dropped to a mark of 54 and looks very appealing.

 

The only other one to note and TRACK is Grace Harris's Connies Rose, it drops back to 6 furlongs after a decent run over further here last time, as a 3 year old it will have scope but no soft going formso in that respect hard to assess, a draw in Stall 15 though could be a positive if Soft so one to keep an eye on.

 

TRACKERS - Tawaafoq + Secret Potion (shrapnel Danny Bleu + Bama Lama - of "soft in Going description)

 

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In the 7.00 race Infiniti is a strong Odds on favourite , Swiss Mistress for Peter Chapple-Hyam could be anything; Cloudy Rose gets th trip and comes a long way but not sure if it rains and Bird For Life tends to lose races at the starts. That all points to UNCLE HENRY being decent each way value.