Chepstow 1.30

Robin - CHEPSTOW 1.30 - Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 11 run - Soft

 

The punting mentality with some of these more experienced Chasers and some of the younger progressive ones is that they will tend to "win in turn" and a lot of the analysis has to focus on when that turn may be. Some will need 2-3 runs, some will always win in the new year as opposed to the Autumn and pre Christmas period and probably every one of these will win a race or rack up some nice placed runs before we see next May. The odd one may progress and move up in grade and run up a sequence.

 

The fact is that most of these will need the run based on factual analysis of their early runs in previous season over Fences and Hurdles and also the analysis of how various Yards are going in the early season. Run this race later in the season and almost certainly you'd get a very different result but my experience tells me we need to look at race fitness and early season form as a key part of the analysis.

 

The likes of in Rem, may need the run, a race fit horse like Great D'Ange who is 1-2 on last 2 runs is race fit and in form, but both wins were on the Good ground it prefers and also right handed.

 

The pair that stand out and well worth a shrapnel bet each in my opinion are FAVOURI DE SIVOLA who has moved to the Pipe yard, had 3 runs but as a result is now fully tuned up, off a very appealing looking handicap mark and gets optimal Going and proven stamina over further than this. They really should be seeking to optimise all of those factors here. TO BE SURE has had a run already and that should see it freshened up and tuned up for this, its best form is on Soft going, it runs off a nice weight and I'm sure Evan Williams and Adam Wedge will similarly see this as an opportunity to get a race win under the horses belt at this stage.

 

Tips (1s) Favouri De Sivola / (2s) To Be Sure

 

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