Cheltenham 2.50

 

I think the Heavy going will make this a real test and feel that the home contingent have a great chance of picking up another win in the contest. A few words from Sean at the end of my analysis about the Irish challenge in the race.

 

Corach Rambler bids to win this again off a 6 lbs higher mark but has Heavy ground winning form and despite the price I would not rule out a bold bid. I can't see any e/w value though so it may be best to have a small win-saver if that floats your boat. I genuinely think that the conditions will play to a few more and make them more likely.  

 

Happygolucky and The big breakaway are in the TRACKER, the former has returned in half decent form after injury and was runner up in this race off a mark of 147 in 2021, runs off 152 here, I just feel the conditions have gone against it. THE BIG BREAKAWAY though I feel will be more suited than anything else in the race by the conditions. It drops back in trip, has proven stamina in the mud and provided that they ride this horse to finish I think it can make relentless progress in the closing stages and get an enhanced place at least up the unforgiving hill.

 

Fantastikas has form in Heavy Going but a tendency to fade at the business end but one I fear greatly nontheless.  Monbeg genius brings the current form but not 100% sure about it in this field on this ground, Iceo Madrik is a complete unknown for the Pipe team but has obvious French heavy ground potential, the wonderful Remastered owes us nothing and will surely make a bold bid but he's got nothing to hide from the handicapper here. I would have been very keen on The Wolf on Good to Soft and the same applies to Tea Clipper whose Festival form though is very hard to ignore and another reluctantly left out. Good Boy Bobby is another whose cv suggests won't have welcomed the rain. Nassalam from the red hot Moore yard steps markedly up in trip here and will do well to continue its form I fear on this testing ground.

 

Sean - of the Irish contingent here I think the best hopes are THE GOFFER and FASTORSLOW but I have to be honest, both are stepped up in trip and this is a race where it's been hard for the Irish to find a well handicapped proven stayer. I;d prefer THE GOFFER purely on the tRainers record here and at around 16-20/1 there are worse Elliott shrapnel bets to have this week to enhanced 5th or 6th places but hand on my Irish heart, I can't see past a home winner.

 

My top 5 in my analysis are in preference order-;

 

OSCAR ELITE gives The Tizzards a strong hand here with THE BIG BREAKAWAY. OSCAR ELITE has a cracking Festival and Course and Distance record, its won a couple of times on the heavy Going at Chepstow, lacks nothing in terms of stamina and looks laid out for the race to me. It runs off a lovely mark and it's hard to find any reason not to invest in it today.

 

THREEUNDERFIVE runs for the Nicholls yard and his mantra is crystal clear in that he won't send any horse here that he doesn't think has a chance of winning as he targets races elsewhere to accumulate prize money towards the Trainers Title he covets so much, the horses form over this sort of trip is solid enough and although it failed to see out 3 miles and 6 furlongs on Heavy ground at Warwick, I really do think that form can be marked up over this shorter trip in the mud. I feel that race was a sighter for this and that they will be 100% confident that the horse will get up the hill and finish strongly.

 

CLOUDY GLEN and LASHKALIN run for Venetia Williams, CLOUDY GLEN arrives fresh and many of her horses run best when fresh, LASKALIN is wonderfully inconsistent but very talented on its day and at 50/1 ish with its French Heavy form might just run the race of its life here and did somewhat jump off the page at me. With most bookies going to 6th place I can't resist a dabble.

 

In order of preference therefore with your choice as to how deep down the list you wish togo but with Odds to 6th widely available-:

 

TIPS (1) Oscar Elite / (2) The Big Breakaway / (3) Threeunderthrufive / (4) Cloudy Glen / (5) Lashkalin (e/w banker if you want is Corach Rambler and Irish e/w is The Goffer)