Bath Monday 2nd October
By National Hunt UK (Robin T)
ROBIN-:
Bath 2.02 - Apprentice Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 5 furlongs - Soft - 14 run
Not too many of these will appreciate the soft conditions at this trip.
Beggarman is in the Tracker and was running well until a surprisingly poor run last time, they have got the cheek pieces back on but the horse just looked a bit over the top and disinterested last time and this Going will test the resolve so at the price I am happy to oppose it.
Imperial Cult has mixed messages about trip and Going and looks short in that context, Arthalot would be a stronger fancy if it had run more recently than 151 days ago but rates a danger. Highland Flyer has had a number of Course runs that suggest it should get this trip and is also a genuine danger. At BIG prices a small shrapnel punt on EASY EQUATION whose best run this season was 3rd over Course and Distance off a mark of 51, runs off 55 here and if you go back far enough will see it started in the bog like conditions of the French provinces so could outrun the odds.
My top two rated though are miles clear of the rest on soft ground form, ASENSE is a Course winner, has won at the trip at Lingfield in Good to Soft and looks solid each way. LADYPACKSAPUNCH runs very solidly and consistently off a basement mark including when stepped in to a far higher Class race here last time, back at her right level and with plenty of form on Good to Soft she looks a good each way punt before the real deluge arrives.
Tips (1) Asense / (2) Ladypacksapunch / (3s) Easy Equation (looks like N/R)
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BATH 5.38 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - Soft - 13 run
If the forecast is correct it could be Heavy Going literally and figuratively by the time the race starts.
At the top of the market that makes Jack Sparowe and Orange Martini opposable on known form, and very few entice me in other than a shortlist of 5 horses.
At massive prices and in conditions that will be a great leveller STILL STANDING has actually won at the trip in Sft Going back in 2019 off a mark of 97, a full 30lbs below that mark now, there will be far worse 50/1 shots.
MISS DOLLY ROCKER who won off todays mark of 73 recently in Soft and MAMBO BEAT who won on Ffos Llas Soft off 4lbs lower last time are both very strong contenders. You can also throw MASQOOL who won at the trip in soft at Nottingham in May and PEACE OF MINE who also won at the trip at Nottingham in April for George Boughy in to the equation.
I think the Ffos Llas form of MAMBO BEAT and the Nottingham April form of the Filly, PEACE OF MINE looks marginally stronger as the 2 main selections but if you want some shrapnel on the other pair then Miss Dolly Rocker and Masqool are big dangers. I'll make Miss Dolly Rocker the reserve.
Tips (1) Mambo Beat / (2) Peace Of Mine / (3s) Masqool
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