Tipperary 3.30

SEAN - Tipperary 3.30 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 20 run - Good to Yielding ( 3 strong reserves!)

 

Firstly a couple for your TRACKERS that caught my eye in the analysis. Long Term ones in FIRST EARLY who has some collateral 3 mile P2P form with Albarone (Be Bromhead winner off 108) and Supreme Escape (competitive for Evan Williams off 120), it beat both of those in the P2P fields so has some ability and upped now to 3 miles and one to TRACK and watch. A DUBLIN JOB too has shown glimmers of form and one that could pick up a small prize in the depths of winter somewhere. It's moved Yards and that may eek more out of it. LOnger term too I think we won't see the best of STELLAR SYMPHONY now until we get better ground but one to note for next Spring for sure.

 

At the head of the market we have some last time out winners, quickly back out, Tullyhogue Fort may not like the slightly softer going and if can get pretty tack here at Tipperary, Cher Why Not is out very quickly after a great run last week but it's come off breaks of 680 and 431 days so it could bounce. They must feel it's still spot on but at the price and with the record of long breaks not for me today. Killinure Lass was hampered last time out and has chances bit 11/2 is not enough to entice and  the bigger fear frankly is first reserve FOLLOW THE CROWD who could really shake up the market with a run. IF you wanted a small e/w bet at the prices whilst its still reserve its a shot to nothing as you get stake refunded if it doesn;t run. Secret Cargo who is third reserve would also be a danger with a run

 

Of the remainder, I narrowed things down to 4 horses.

 

BEARWITHMENOW should benefit from a recent return to Hurdles, it showed up well until hampered 3 out and was then eased and looked to have benefitted from the run. it's got a solid each way chance off a mark of 88. CHIEF SEATTLE was frankly awful last time out but if we excuse the transition back from fences to hurdles and look closely at previous hurdle form, it is too well handicapped to ignore and gets ideal trip, perfect Going and a nice mark to work with if running with more enthusiasm for the job in hand.

 

CITIZENS ARMY at a bigger price has some good 3 mile P2P form, and has been crying out for the trip and they add cheek-pieces to the step up in trip and I'm quietly confident that this is one for today and the future at this trip. Finally, SILVER PLANEUR who let us down again last time but who remains an enigma that is surely "due", I'll suggest a small investment as again there can be no excuses about how well handicapped it is and how this is an ideal trip and the softer/tackier GOing than last time may be an added little inducement for some profit.

 

TRACKERS - Bearwithenow + Chief Seattle / shrapnel Citizens Army + Silver Planeur (see notes re long term Trackers and FOLLOW THE CROWD @ 5/1