Sunday 11th October at The Curragh and Limerick

 

The first thing to point out is that this race is NOT started from Stalls, that means a sharp brain and jockey-ship are vital, easy to lose this race right at the very start.

 

Let's start with the blindingly obvious ROYAL ILLUSION - winner last year, strong favourite, Mullins, can't possibly lose can he?. Well he can and he could, if you want  a "win saver" to say you backed the winner if nothing else, I won't put you off but I have reservations. Last year he won off 11lbs lower after a string of impressive runs, he was rock hard fit, race fit, I'm not saying he won't win but he is not as fit (one prep run) and not as well handicapped. He shares favouritism with RUN FOR MARY who has strong claims on it's Galway run, a race that included, you guessed it Great White Shark, I'll come back to that race in a moment as it throws up some significant form, that indicates the market may have allowed us a few big priced pokes at horses with excellent collateral form.

 

Let's firstly look at the other dangers.

 

There are a pair of reserves who must be noted WALKING ON GLASS who should get a run as Takerengo ran yesterday (and no surprise it ran well), and one who has an excellent each way chance and worth a small investment with a run. Another reserve is RED GERRY who Noel Meade will be crossing finger for, 4th off 84 in this race last year and another I would not put anyone having a small investment in "with a run" as a sporting bet.

 

The Mullins second string KAATSKILL NAP will come in for plenty of support from Mullins followers, on this occasion it's one I'd take on the chin, as unless it has been showing something very special at home (and no real bangs that it has on the jungle drums) the sum of the form parts does not really add up. I won't be crying over my spilt milk tonight if it proves me wrong.KINGS VOW could be a slow improver for young O'Brien and one to note, CAPE GENTLEMAN could have some deep French form that would give it a squeak but lets focus on 4 that could represent value.

 

Tony Martin runs a pair, Tudor City did us proud at Galway and not out of this but GOLDEN SPEAR is of more interest. He ran a place at Galway in a different race where DE NAME ESCAPES ME and GRANDMASTER FLASH finished in a heap in place positions, ahead of Grand Master Flash but just behind the very well backed and well fancied joint favourite here RUN FOR MARY.

 

What piques my interest and makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up is that whilst Golden Spear is a few pounds worse off strictly on the foem book, DE NAME ESCAPES ME gets a pull of 8 lbs for less than 2 lengths with Run For Mary and GRANDMASTER FLASH gets a pull of 7 lbs. The market I think has these horses over-priced, it may be Run For Mary is way too short - only one way to find out.

 

DE NAME ESCAPES ME has excellent Course form, runner up twice is fine on soft Going and as we know a nice mark; GRANDMASTER FLASH also ticks the right boxes and with GOLDEN SPEAR and a win saver on Royal Illusion I'll be looking for net profit from the race with enhanced place Odds and yep...lets try one of the legendary Tricast Perms on those 4.

 

 

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This is I think a race destined for the top half of the market.

 

Lets look at the dangers first.

 

Aforementioned was mighty impressive at Clonmel, could be anything but on balance I'm not sure about the Going here and hardly an overnight sensation. Doctor Duffy is fit and in form, obvious chance but can throw in a dodgy jump or two and may have done its winning for now. Roaring Bull won the Paddy Power at Leopardstown last year, still 6lbs above that mark and may I think still be being prepared for some races a bit later on, would not surprise if it popped up but i see this as a nice prep race. The Wests Awake is becoming an infuriating one, travels so well in to races and then finds little. I'd say 2 miles 5 - 6 furlongs is still that one's optimum trip. One day it will get cover to the last, ping it and win, may be today so a big danger but I think a pair are better handicapped and tougher in a finish.

 

MOYHENNA was unlucky not to nick a win on the line last time, 3 weeks to recover, a Course winner and a very strong chance. WESTERNER POINT looks like this has been a bit of a target. Needed season debut will come on for it, has won at the Course and we know Going and trip are no problem.

 

If there is one at a price who could pop in to a place at a price I think it could be BLAST OF KOEMAN, worth shopping around for any Bookie enhancing if non runners (only 16 here and no reserves) a Course winner, had 2 runs, should be fully fit now and trip, mark and Going fine off a lovely weight.