Sean - Thurles Thursday 20th October

2.35 Handicap Chase - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 15 run - Good to Yielding (most of any rain is likely after racing)

 

At the top of the market Union Park has serious claims but may just need proper "Good ground" so at the price I want to take it on. King Ferdinand is an ex Tom Lacey horse who has come through the NH bumper and Hurdle route, a nice prospect upped in trip but not crying out to be backed at such a short price I don't think.

 

Early Arrival may have won and placed in its last 2 runs but for jumping errors late on, I have looked at those and I think they are tired falls and i'm not 100% convinced of staying power over this trip. With a clear round though it would be a massive danger. On the other hand Lessofdnegativity is 10lbs above its last win mark and would surely prefer further.  Different Strokes is I think more of a summer ground NH horse and Definitedare has a chance on some hurdle form but yet to show its hand over fences. Jetango too would have a squeak based on hurdles form and has a 3 mile P2P win and just missed a small shrapnel investment.

 

I'm fascinated by the drop in trip for THE EYE OF TULLA and think its very nicely priced and I'll be very disappointed if its not placed at the very least. I'll also have some small shrapnel bets on ESTHERS MARVEL who is race fit and a Distance winner running below that winning mark and whose prominent running style and proven stamina looks ideal for this track. I also think that FALCON PARK who also drops in trip and who has run prominently to this point a few times is an interesting candidate and slowing getting to grips and likely to click sooner rather than later.

 

 

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Both Ardera Ru and Stellar Symphony are in the Tracker but i think both will be seen in better light a bit later on in the season. In A Nice Way for whom Danny Mullins is a eye catching booking steps up in trip significantly and one to keep a close eye on for signs of improvement. Blossom De Mai had excuses last time and should have a sporting chance here with luck in running.

 

It's hard to look past NATURAL LOOK if you wanted a win saver at short odds. I think it wins this race 7 times out of 10 but it's up 8lbs and up in trip but it does have a 3 mile P2P background. 

 

I'm not that keen on Good bye Milan who is upped in trip and Jungle prose who has come to Elliott from Nick Gifford at their prices but WELL POLLY runs at what looks to me to be an ideal trip for her, gets the assistance of Rachel B and whilst the mark is not a gimmie I think this is an improving type ready to win.

 

At bigger odds, I really am taken with the chances of CAMILLAS CHOICE a 3 mile P2P winner plenty of quiet promise and running off a nice mark and the Cheekpieces should just calm her down a bit and see her see out this trip perfectly. If you wanted a £1 each way too on COURTING VICKIE I'd see it as a wise choice as she'll come on for a recent quiet run and has shown at the trip and off this sort of mark that she's not too far away and some of her best form has been in October and April and that sort of cycular pattern can be a good pointer to when Mares are at their peak physical power.

TRACKER - Well Polly / shrapnel - Camillas Choice (£1 e/w if you wish Courting Vickie)