SEAN - Limerick 3.35

 

I think quite a few will need the run here, some come fit and ready after a summer campaign but may not welcome the rain, Elliott runs five, so we need to assess them.

 

At the top of the market is Ain't That A Shame, a classy type with untapped potential who would be a hugely popular and prophetic sounding winner for Henry De Bromhead. It's a horse that has some significant scope but in the conditions I just felt there was better value elsewhere.  It's hard to quantify just how good a Trainer Henry is, harder still to grasp the incredible tragedy they have suffered.

 

Max Flamingo has had a run which was needed but is another I have reservations about, they go for the cheek-pieces for Donkey Years and I think this one is probably now in the grip of the handicapper and form suggests it's possibly more of a Spring horse. Velvet Elvis is another who may need the run and also prove that it can win off a mark of 143, I'm not sure it can.

 

Floueur is one of five for Elliott and gets the nod from Davy Russell, its best run last year was a win off 136 at Fairyhouse over shorter and I just think on balance it'll be better for this run. I will track it forwards and the same applies to stablemates, Death Duty who ran well most of last season and who may need this and also a slightly longer trip, Coko Beach too should be very competitive this season once tuned up, it shot up the handicap 2 seasons ago, treaded water with that mark last season but may really get competitive again in the months ahead. Hurricane Georgie just missed an investment and would be my small shrapnel if you wanted one.

 

Of the Elliott team and at a very interesting each way price I'm most keen on DEFI BLEU. The trip, track and Going are ideal, it runs off a nice mark too on past form and it can go well enough fresh and off a break of 176 days I think could run a big race.

 

Darrens Hope is a locally trained horse who runs the track well but I'd be surprised if he was quite good enough in this company, Lieutenant Command is a BIG danger if they can get it back jumping well. It has run well and actually has won fresh last year and in each of the past 3 seasons prior to that. This is a tough race though to test your jumping but it's the last one I discarded and if you wanted a third pick (or a reserve in case of a non runner this would be it).

 

It's hard to know what the best trip is for Early Doors and although Walking On Glass has won its last 2 races I think the rain and new mark will be prohibitive today.

 

A WAVE OF THE SEA is another credible danger having been runner up in this last year off a mark of 137, they have again got a run in prior to today like last year but off a mark 8 lbs higher it needs to have improved, I think it has and I also don't think this is quite as deep a race as the one it ran in last year.

 

TRACKERS -: A Wave Of The Sea + Defi Bleu (reserve Lieutenant Command if n/r)