Punchestown 4.45

SEAN - Punchestown 4.45 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 furlongs - 20 run - Yielding (dry / cloudy)

 

The more I looked at this race the more I was a bit baffled by the early market outside of the top two, and feel there are a few at inflated Odds who should be backed and taking an early price in the process.

 

The obvious ones are SEA ASTER and HAND OVER FIST, Hand Over Fist is a Tracker horse and I would suggest a reverse F/Cast on the pair and if you wanted a small win saver then I would not put you off. 

 

Aside from them though I think that 3-4 are exceptional early market value.

 

BENKEI, A Great View, HAND OVER FIST and Outside The Door are all in the Tracker, I fear AGreat View but just felt 3 or 4 were better value, Outside The Door is a longer term prospect I think for the winter and BENKEI , I will come on to.

 

Stuzzikini is a second string for Elliott who can't be totally ignored but enough question marks for me purely on form, Another choice was runner up on its only Course run but was Pulled Up last time, came as close as anything else to the list but I will just leave it off today and watch to see it complete the Course. 

 

Outside of the top two the standout for me is GETAWAY CHARLIE , a promising and progressive 7 year old, gets this trip and strong indications it will stay further, he looks very solid each way and a mark of 109 with the 7 lbs being claimed looks very appealing. MIDNIGHT OUR FRED has run well over Hurdles at this sort of trip off marks of 99 and 100, has had a couple of Chase runs but not yet caught fire in that sphere and runs off a mark of 108 here over Hurdles and is one i think can run a place at least.

 

At bigger odds FULLY CHARGED has a Course win off a mark of 128, a Course and Distance place off a mark of 134, probably needed last 2 runs but this is a quirky Hurdles track and course form is a big asset, the fact it's the De Bromhead second string would make anything over 25/1 look value. BENKEI is around 50-66/1 a 13 year old now BUT a bit of a Course specialist and no exaggeration to say probably 10lbs better round here than anywhere else, its placed on it's last 2 Course and Distance runs at big odds and a repeat is far from impossible.

 

Tips (1) Getaway Charlie (2s) Midnight Our Fred / (3s) Fully Charged / (4s) Benkei.....see notes re top 2 in the market