Kilbeggan 7.45

 

An interesting contest at this quirky Track where Course experience is a big asset.

 

The pair at the head of the market, Donkey Years and Samurai Warrior are worthy in the context of form and potential, but until a horse runs round here you never know if it'll deal with the tight turns and the need to be placed handy and stay balanced. 

 

Definite Soldier a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 106 in May returns off 109 after a poor run since, that can be forgiven and he rates a very big danger. Nobody Home is another Course and Distance specialist who needed a  seasonal debut but that was 95 days ago and that is a real niggle. His Course form is impressive, placing off 115 and winning off 116 as is an earlier CD win off 109, rain is not a negative either but that fitness edge may just be lacking and I'll reluctantly leave it out of a final 3 today.

 

Jack Hackett is a stone above the marks it had when delivering a great sequence over Course and Distance last season, 2 places and a win, that can't be ignored but I think he needs a good 10lbs back off the handicapper to be winning again.

 

The final 3 include one that jumps off the page at me and a couple who are eased considerably in Grade and who should have excellent chances IF there is anything left in their lockers.

 

ASK NILE ticks every box as a tip. Runner up over Course and Distance in May in the race won by Definite Soldier, more likely to cope with any rain off a mark that correlates exactly the same as the May race and only needs to find 1/2 length at effectively level weights. Has dropped down handicap over fences and was placed off 130, so today's mark of 123 looks very appealing.

 

The pair eased in Grade are DREAM CONTI, who is still only an 8 year old, takes a big drop here, rain will be a plus as is the drop in trip. Would be thrown in on the basis of seasonal debut at Punchestown last November and really can't be ignored at big odds. Similarly PLINTH is eased significantly and only last July (2020) was 4th here in the Midlands National off a mark of 127. Also has a Course and Distance win off 126 and runs tonight off a mark of 116 with Mark Walsh up for Enda Bolger.  

 

An intriguing race on an otherwise poor day of Racing.