Kilbeggan 7.25

 

They do almost 3 circuits of this tight right handed track and most will be on and off the bridle and Course form and the ability to lay up with the pace are big advantages

 

It's another of those races where a close examination suggests it's hard to rule too many out on past form if you look deeply enough.

 

Chief Seattle who is upped 6lbs for a win 4 days ago and Steps Match who is 2lbs better off with Sweet Cargo for a neck on collateral form and who will prefer this trip of those pair, look very solid at the top of the market and I recommend a small reverse forecast to cover off a couple of each way singles on others at bigger odds.

 

I tipped brogine over Hurdles last time at 22/1 and it was running prominently until falling at the 8th fence, it's surprisingly bought back to fences after quite a spell over Hurdles and the fact it fell the last time it raced over Chase fences doesn't inspire confidence but it's a horse with an engine and will be winning at some point so I leave it out this time with some reluctance.

 

Leac And Scail Lady for Henry DB and Rachel has some scope and unfulfilled potential as yet and does have a 3 mile P2P win so stamina may not be an issue, I just feel this will be a rough and tumble race though and lack of race experience may just be the achilles heel although a big run would not surprise. I think Dalileo and Clonmoyle are just in the grip of the handicapper right now and can leave them out of consideration for that reason tonight. Secret Cargo who I've already mentioned in context of Steps Match is another who may just need a few pounds off the handicapper to be winning again.

 

Napoleon Blue has been runner up the last twice its run over this Course and Distance off marks of 102 and 112, but it may need this off a 426 day absence but definitely one to add to your TRACKER lists for sure. 

 

I'm left with 3 at good each way prices that I'm most keen on for some e/w profit.

 

ARGADHS CHOICE is a Course and Distance winner back in September 2020 off a mark of 95 at 100/1!. It then won again and got a mark significantly in excess of 100 which it just couldn;t be competitive off. It's not run that badly in vain attempts but finally back below a mark of 100 it put up a noticably improved performance finishing 3rd off a mark of 99 last time. As we repeatedly say, every horse has a level it can win or place off and this horse is coming in to that range and one to follow tonight and over next few runs.

 

GRANGECLARE NATIVE is way overpriced i think, it's been runner up here over 2 miles and 6 furlongs and if you go back far enough can find some winning 3 mile P2P form, its well handicapped too and i'm happy to have a speculative punt. Old HOKE COLBURN is one that pops up when unexpected and is about due one of those efforts,its run well enough here to suggest the Course suits, the trip is no problem, the mark is down to a very appealing level and if it gets settled in to a rhythm is perfectly capable of running an enhanced place.