Exeter 3.15

 

There hasn't been the glut of rain in Devon this year that we had last but a fair bit recently and a spell of continual light rain yesterday will probably mean its softer rather than deep muddy glue/dead Going. Absolutely no doubt this will be a massive stamina test and all about a horse that can find a rhythm and conserve some energy.

 

A few try the trip for the first time so it's all about their potential and proving they have the heart for it. At these distances ability will get you so far, a big heart and desire to win, will get you up the hill and home.

 

Of those with that element to prove but horses with clear potential and ability we have Some Detail, who has come in for solid and consistent support, more than halving in price since yesterday. A Yard who know the time of day, at double figures it would have been a possible Tracker bet, but I think the value has long gone so will watch and take it on the chin as I'm not totally sure it's a horse they will want to bottom out yet.

 

In the same category comes Sizing Cosimino, long rated a horse of potential at staying trips and Robbie Power is certainly starting to earn his fees for the Tizzards. It's not a horse that strikes me as being a mud lover, more a Spring soft ground type and I would pose the question again "do they want to bottom this horse out" so early in the season and possibly leave a mental scar by doing so? We shall see!

 

Bermeo certainly likes a Chase of this type, proven stamina but on occasions when encountering heavy has disappointed and I think there is a prize in this one later on in the season on less testing ground. A big danger though if getting into a nice rhythm. Findusatgarcombe is intriguing off bottom weight and would be a hugely popular winner for the Frosts. Certainly one that could outrun its Odds and Bryony will no doubt be as tender as possible for as long as possible before trying to carry the horse up the hill, it's one I think could nick a place at big odds.

 

Ballymalin @ 16/1 is the enigma of the race and I changed my mind continually about this one (always dangerous), Pulled Up and Ran Out this season. It has been 4 miles in heavy though and has won over 3 miles and 5 furlongs on soft....what to do??....I think the safest and most sensible advice is to watch the first 1/2 mile of the race and if it's got in to a nice rhythm have an "in running saver"....if anything is going to lead them a merry dance and jump from fence to fence it's this one.

 

That leaves me with three and I have no equivocation in making PETITE POWER a confident tip. Runner up last year, Yard in outstanding form and have been all season, almost certainly laid out for this race all season and runs off the same mark this season as last when just pipped close home. With luck in running would be disappointing if not winning or being right in contention.

 

I think Dawson City who won this in 2019 will again be a massive factor, the win came on Good to Soft, no doubt it gets the trip and no doubt it gets further, I just have a niggle about this Going and the thought there are bigger prizes after Christmas when the Going may be a bit softer and more conducive. If you wanted a small bet I would not put you off.

 

I'll wager a Tracker though on one more speculative and from a Yard who aren't quite firing but who can train a long distance Chaser to the minute as well as anyone. HOLDBACKTHERIVER is a Course winner which is a big asset. Pulled Up in this last year but then went on and won a race in Heavy over 3 miles 2 furlongs at Chepstow off 117 (now if not delivering today that's certainly a tip in itself for next time) but, I think a horse better on Heavy than it is on Soft and a year older, I'd wager that this is a bit of a plan and they will be seeing if they have a 3 and a half mile horse or a 4 mile horse as at 8 years old now, that would open up numerous opportunities going forwards. So a Tracker bet today and certainly a Tracker for the coming months.

 

TIP - PETITE POWER - Tracker - Holdbacktheriver (if any non runner - Dawson City)